0x0b65…293e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0b652d3e55be0e1d50c2f7be39358585c415293e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

68% @ 58.9¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

1185

Avg size

$83

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (101/148)	+25%	148
Politics	72% (34/47)	+6%	47
Geopolitics	78% (14/18)	+16%	18
Tech	50% (1/2)	-32%	2
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+270%	1

Other148 bets
Hit rate
68% (101/148)
ROI
+25%
Politics47 bets
Hit rate
72% (34/47)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
78% (14/18)
ROI
+16%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-32%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+270%

Track record

69% hit · 151/219

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$405	81.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$340	34.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 30, 2026?	No	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$88	88.3¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$448	89.5¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$46	4.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$248	41.0¢	Won
Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Will Les Wexner Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	$11	84.3¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	No	$104	74.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$583	82.7¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$423	84.6¢	Won
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 11, 2026?	Yes	$4	35.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$350	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	70.0¢	Won
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	$10	63.3¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$132	66.0¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	No	$123	87.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$203	46.9¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$4.6k	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	$445	89.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$177	44.4¢	Won
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	$536	89.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$6.1k	81.7¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$78	68.2¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$447	89.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.5k	85.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$785	87.2¢	Won
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?	No	$74	87.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$62	62.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$301	60.2¢	Won
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	$43	87.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$841	84.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$1.7k	84.2¢	Won
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?	Yes	$152	76.1¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$408	44.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?	Yes	$36	69.7¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$101	20.2¢	Won
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?	No	$136	44.0¢	Won
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$67	67.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$17	17.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$838	83.8¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$602	82.0¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?	No	$14	60.0¢	Won
Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$35	87.5¢	Won
Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?	No	$1.1k	84.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$225	45.0¢	Lost

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$340 @ 34.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 30, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.3¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$448 @ 89.5¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$46 @ 4.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$248 @ 41.0¢
Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Les Wexner Testify to Congress about Epstein?Won
Yes$11 @ 84.3¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Won
No$104 @ 74.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$583 @ 82.7¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$423 @ 84.6¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 35.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$350 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?Won
Yes$10 @ 63.3¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$132 @ 66.0¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?Won
No$123 @ 87.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$203 @ 46.9¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 58.0¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Won
No$445 @ 89.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$177 @ 44.4¢
Will the US strike Somalia next?Won
Yes$536 @ 89.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$6.1k @ 81.7¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$78 @ 68.2¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$447 @ 89.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$785 @ 87.2¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?Lost
No$74 @ 87.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$62 @ 62.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$301 @ 60.2¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 87.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$841 @ 84.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.2¢
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?Won
Yes$152 @ 76.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$408 @ 44.0¢
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Won
Yes$36 @ 69.7¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$101 @ 20.2¢
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?Won
No$136 @ 44.0¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 17.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$838 @ 83.8¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$602 @ 82.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?Won
No$14 @ 60.0¢
Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$35 @ 87.5¢
Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?Won
No$1.1k @ 84.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$225 @ 45.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$7.1k	95.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$6.0k	85.6¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.7k	97.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.7k	94.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.7k	92.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	47.8¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	80.5¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	90.8¢
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	—	Yes	$1.4k	95.3¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	90.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	95.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	85.0¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$466	87.7¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$364	88.3¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$301	95.6¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	No	$223	85.3¢
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Politics	No	$124	98.5¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 24, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$101	96.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$73	88.0¢
Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?	Politics	No	$61	93.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$41	95.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$39	58.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	62.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 18?	Geopolitics	No	$10	49.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	64.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 26, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	56.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 23, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$6	98.9¢

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$7.1k @ 95.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$6.0k @ 85.6¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$5.7k @ 97.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.7k @ 94.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.7k @ 92.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 47.8¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 80.5¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 90.8¢
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?—
Yes$1.4k @ 95.3¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 90.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 95.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Politics
No$1.0k @ 85.0¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$466 @ 87.7¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$364 @ 88.3¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?Geopolitics
No$301 @ 95.6¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
No$223 @ 85.3¢
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?Politics
No$124 @ 98.5¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 24, 2026?Geopolitics
No$101 @ 96.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$73 @ 88.0¢
Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?Politics
No$61 @ 93.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$41 @ 95.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$39 @ 58.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 62.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 18?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 49.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 26, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 56.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 23, 2026?Geopolitics
No$6 @ 98.9¢