← Smart money
0x0a90…c61d
SharpEdge
+33.5pp
ROI
+20%
Win rate
81% @ 47.6¢
Brier
0.199
Resolved
79
Avg size
$58
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 33% (2/6) | -89% | 6 |
| Sports | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +90% | 1 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- -89%
- Sports3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +90%
Track record
30% hit · 3/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $4 | 1.8¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | $45 | 24.0¢ | Won |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance | Switzerland | $11 | 71.3¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | $6 | 1.6¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Yes | $2 | 3.3¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | $1.7k | 51.8¢ | Lost |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | Egypt | $3 | 22.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $2 | 0.2¢ | Lost |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $28 | 4.6¢ | Lost |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | $2.8k | 52.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$4 @ 1.8¢
- Yes$45 @ 24.0¢
- Switzerland$11 @ 71.3¢
- No$6 @ 1.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
- No$1.7k @ 51.8¢
- Egypt$3 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$28 @ 4.6¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 52.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…