0x0a61…2c6b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0a61e40ebf154825b164382cd932ece781cf2c6b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

36% @ 31.5¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

2947

Avg size

$77

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (73/242)	+11%	242
Politics	40% (2/5)	-90%	5

Other242 bets
Hit rate
30% (73/242)
ROI
+11%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-90%

Track record

30% hit · 75/247

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?	Yes	$130	48.1¢	Lost
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$1.4k	41.6¢	Lost
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$630	34.0¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?	Yes	$73	27.4¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	Yes	$1.3k	12.7¢	Lost
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	No	$152	76.0¢	Won
Will the Liberals win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?	Yes	$29	2.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?	Yes	$149	8.4¢	Lost
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?	No	$45	89.0¢	Won
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	No	$8.2k	21.9¢	Won
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	Yes	$539	39.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	Yes	$3.4k	74.0¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?	Yes	$5	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Russia before July?	Yes	$35	4.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$261	81.0¢	Lost
Will NDP win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$1.1k	32.0¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?	Yes	$282	63.6¢	Won
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$1.2k	89.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?	Yes	$7.7k	38.4¢	Lost
Zelenskyy impeached before July?	Yes	$170	6.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka before July?	Yes	$7	10.7¢	Lost
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	No	$3.9k	58.4¢	Lost
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	Yes	$21	56.0¢	Won
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?	Yes	$10	1.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	23.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	No	$1.8k	7.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	Yes	$1.4k	7.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?	Yes	$154	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?	No	$170	65.8¢	Won
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?	Yes	$7.5k	36.6¢	Lost
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?	Yes	$1.4k	67.5¢	Won
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Yes	$75	75.0¢	Lost
Will the Conservative Party win between 35% and 38% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?	Yes	$271	22.6¢	Lost
Will 120-125 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?	No	$179	60.8¢	Won
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?	Yes	$37	0.8¢	Lost
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9?	Yes	$1.5k	1.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?	Yes	$48	47.9¢	Lost
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?	No	$694	4.1¢	Lost
Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min?	Yes	$54	33.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?	No	$57	45.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?	Yes	$498	38.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?	Yes	$151	58.1¢	Won
Will John Fetterman attend Super Bowl LIX?	Yes	$23	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Israel in May?	Yes	$324	15.0¢	Lost
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?	No	$2.4k	53.3¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
New Pope in 2025?	Yes	$15	59.0¢	Won

Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?Lost
Yes$130 @ 48.1¢
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 41.6¢
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$630 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?Lost
Yes$73 @ 27.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 12.7¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Won
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will the Liberals win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$29 @ 2.3¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?Lost
Yes$149 @ 8.4¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Won
No$8.2k @ 21.9¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Lost
Yes$539 @ 39.6¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 74.0¢
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump visit Russia before July?Lost
Yes$35 @ 4.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$261 @ 81.0¢
Will NDP win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 32.0¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Won
Yes$282 @ 63.6¢
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 89.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?Lost
Yes$7.7k @ 38.4¢
Zelenskyy impeached before July?Lost
Yes$170 @ 6.0¢
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka before July?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.7¢
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Lost
No$3.9k @ 58.4¢
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Won
Yes$21 @ 56.0¢
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 23.0¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Lost
No$1.8k @ 7.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 7.7¢
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?Lost
Yes$154 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?Won
No$170 @ 65.8¢
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 36.6¢
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 67.5¢
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Lost
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Will the Conservative Party win between 35% and 38% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?Lost
Yes$271 @ 22.6¢
Will 120-125 million people watch Super Bowl LIX?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?Won
No$179 @ 60.8¢
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?Lost
Yes$37 @ 0.8¢
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 1.1¢
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?Lost
Yes$48 @ 47.9¢
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?Lost
No$694 @ 4.1¢
Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min?Lost
Yes$54 @ 33.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?Won
No$57 @ 45.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?Lost
Yes$498 @ 38.3¢
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Won
Yes$151 @ 58.1¢
Will John Fetterman attend Super Bowl LIX?Lost
Yes$23 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump visit Israel in May?Lost
Yes$324 @ 15.0¢
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?Won
No$2.4k @ 53.3¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
New Pope in 2025?Won
Yes$15 @ 59.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$451	6.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$160	16.6¢
Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?	Politics	No	$41	55.2¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in another country?	Politics	Yes	$2	5.2¢

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$451 @ 6.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$160 @ 16.6¢
Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?Politics
No$41 @ 55.2¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in another country?Politics
Yes$2 @ 5.2¢