0x08a6…f3cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x08a6e4da67d93ab30bb3e4c88c550977866af3cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+105%

Win rate

13% @ 9.1¢

Brier

0.094

Resolved

290

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	8% (6/75)	+131%	75
Sports	9% (6/66)	+17%	66
Other	21% (13/61)	+14%	61
Geopolitics	40% (6/15)	+43%	15

Politics75 bets
Hit rate
8% (6/75)
ROI
+131%
Sports66 bets
Hit rate
9% (6/66)
ROI
+17%
Other61 bets
Hit rate
21% (13/61)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+43%

Track record

14% hit · 31/217

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	69.3¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will Mitch Marner lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points?	No	$3	34.0¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$1	18.0¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?	No	$3	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	8.5¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Cale Makar win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Carson Carels be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?	Yes	$8	78.8¢	Lost
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	No	$4	70.2¢	Lost
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$2	3.2¢	Lost
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	No	$27	74.5¢	Won
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	Canada	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	43.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will Seth Jarvis win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$4	19.6¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 69.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will Mitch Marner lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points?Won
No$3 @ 34.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
No$1 @ 18.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?Won
No$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.5¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Cale Makar win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Carson Carels be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?Lost
Yes$8 @ 78.8¢
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?Lost
No$4 @ 70.2¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.2¢
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Won
No$27 @ 74.5¢
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?Lost
Canada$1 @ 7.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 43.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will Seth Jarvis win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Won
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.6¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$286	84.1¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$254	78.9¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$157	61.0¢
Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	—	No	$143	69.9¢
USMCA extended in 2026?	—	No	$110	55.9¢
Will Viggo Björck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	—	No	$87	94.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$85	79.8¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$82	79.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	—	No	$59	65.6¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$57	69.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$54	25.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	—	No	$49	38.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$45	73.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?	Politics	No	$40	78.0¢
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	—	No	$39	71.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	Politics	No	$32	22.1¢
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$32	80.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$31	13.9¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	—	No	$30	72.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$30	65.3¢
Will St. Louis Blues be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?	—	No	$28	90.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$27	77.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$27	56.1¢
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Sports	No	$26	75.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Politics	No	$25	19.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	—	No	$25	53.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$21	35.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?	Politics	No	$20	66.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	40.6¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	89.1¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$286 @ 84.1¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
No$254 @ 78.9¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$157 @ 61.0¢
Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?—
No$143 @ 69.9¢
USMCA extended in 2026?—
No$110 @ 55.9¢
Will Viggo Björck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?—
No$87 @ 94.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$85 @ 79.8¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$82 @ 79.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?—
No$59 @ 65.6¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$57 @ 69.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$54 @ 25.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?—
No$49 @ 38.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 73.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 78.0¢
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?—
No$39 @ 71.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?Politics
No$32 @ 22.1¢
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$32 @ 80.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 13.9¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?—
No$30 @ 72.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$30 @ 65.3¢
Will St. Louis Blues be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?—
No$28 @ 90.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$27 @ 77.8¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$27 @ 56.1¢
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Sports
No$26 @ 75.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 19.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?—
No$25 @ 53.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$21 @ 35.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 66.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 40.6¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 89.1¢