0x08a6…f3cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x08a6e4da67d93ab30bb3e4c88c550977866af3cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

23% @ 19.6¢

Brier

0.073

Resolved

616

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	22% (32/147)	+13%	147
Other	25% (27/108)	+23%	108
Sports	11% (9/80)	+35%	80
Geopolitics	35% (12/34)	+16%	34

Politics147 bets
Hit rate
22% (32/147)
ROI
+13%
Other108 bets
Hit rate
25% (27/108)
ROI
+23%
Sports80 bets
Hit rate
11% (9/80)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics34 bets
Hit rate
35% (12/34)
ROI
+16%

Track record

22% hit · 80/369

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$5	48.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$8	79.0¢	Won
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$5	7.3¢	Lost
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?	No	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$7	3.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$5	32.1¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	4.5¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$2	20.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?	No	$3	30.6¢	Won
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	$0	3.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	8.5¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$0	7.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	72.0¢	Won
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$8	82.1¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$19	75.0¢	Won
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$1	9.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$10	68.9¢	Won
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$14	63.1¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$6	56.6¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 48.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$8 @ 79.0¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.3¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?Lost
No$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.1¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$5 @ 32.1¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 20.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be red?Won
No$3 @ 30.6¢
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 72.0¢
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Won
No$8 @ 82.1¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 23.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 75.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$5 @ 46.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$1 @ 9.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$10 @ 68.9¢
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$14 @ 63.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 56.6¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$253	84.1¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$246	78.9¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$167	61.1¢
USMCA extended in 2026?	Politics	No	$157	54.1¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$118	78.5¢
Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Sports	No	$94	69.9¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$85	79.8¢
Will Viggo Björck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Sports	No	$78	94.3¢
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$67	79.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$54	25.7¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	No	$53	70.5¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	No	$49	38.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?	Politics	No	$40	78.0¢
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Sports	No	$39	71.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$38	73.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$35	65.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$31	13.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$30	65.3¢
Will St. Louis Blues be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?	Sports	No	$28	90.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$27	77.8¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Politics	No	$25	19.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	No	$25	53.6¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$24	56.1¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$23	69.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$21	35.3¢
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Sports	No	$19	75.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	40.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	72.4¢
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	10.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	23.3¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$253 @ 84.1¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
No$246 @ 78.9¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$167 @ 61.1¢
USMCA extended in 2026?Politics
No$157 @ 54.1¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$118 @ 78.5¢
Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Sports
No$94 @ 69.9¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$85 @ 79.8¢
Will Viggo Björck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Sports
No$78 @ 94.3¢
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$67 @ 79.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$54 @ 25.7¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
No$53 @ 70.5¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
No$49 @ 38.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 78.0¢
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Sports
No$39 @ 71.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Politics
No$38 @ 73.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$35 @ 65.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 13.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$30 @ 65.3¢
Will St. Louis Blues be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?Sports
No$28 @ 90.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$27 @ 77.8¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 19.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
No$25 @ 53.6¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 56.1¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$23 @ 69.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$21 @ 35.3¢
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Sports
No$19 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 40.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 72.4¢
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 10.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 23.3¢