0x08a6…f3cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x08a6e4da67d93ab30bb3e4c88c550977866af3cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

24% @ 21.0¢

Brier

0.089

Resolved

3901

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	25% (140/567)	-1%	567
Politics	33% (117/356)	+28%	356
Sports	17% (25/146)	+43%	146
Geopolitics	40% (23/57)	+46%	57
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+52%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other567 bets
Hit rate
25% (140/567)
ROI
-1%
Politics356 bets
Hit rate
33% (117/356)
ROI
+28%
Sports146 bets
Hit rate
17% (25/146)
ROI
+43%
Geopolitics57 bets
Hit rate
40% (23/57)
ROI
+46%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

27% hit · 307/1129

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	$3	59.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	$1	9.3¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	No	$9	89.1¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$124	56.1¢	Won
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events?	No	$2	53.0¢	Won
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.1¢	Lost
Canada recession before 2027?	No	$6	58.5¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Yes	$5	20.7¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$13	53.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$0	1.9¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$15	71.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$7	24.2¢	Lost
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	Yes	$14	27.3¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?	Anthropic	$2	7.5¢	Lost
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$3	55.0¢	Lost
Will Cole Caufield win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$7	74.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events?	No	$4	17.7¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?	No	$2	11.5¢	Lost
Will the match not air?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$34	8.8¢	Lost
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	42.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$8	79.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$4	84.0¢	Won
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	No	$10	52.1¢	Won
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	Yes	$4	25.2¢	Lost
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$2	15.7¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$3	66.0¢	Won
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$0	1.6¢	Lost
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$8	73.1¢	Won
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Great Britain	Great Britain	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will William Karlsson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost

Blue tsunami in 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 59.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.3¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$9 @ 89.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 36.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$124 @ 56.1¢
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events?Won
No$2 @ 53.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.1¢
Canada recession before 2027?Lost
No$6 @ 58.5¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 53.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.9¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$15 @ 71.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 24.2¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Won
Yes$14 @ 27.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?Lost
Anthropic$2 @ 7.5¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Will Cole Caufield win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$7 @ 74.3¢
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events?Lost
No$4 @ 17.7¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?Lost
No$2 @ 11.5¢
Will the match not air?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$34 @ 8.8¢
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$8 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$4 @ 84.0¢
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Won
No$10 @ 52.1¢
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Lost
Yes$4 @ 25.2¢
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$2 @ 15.7¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 73.1¢
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Great BritainLost
Great Britain$0 @ 0.1¢
Will William Karlsson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$202	78.9¢
USMCA extended in 2026?	Politics	No	$143	57.6¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	No	$115	78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$104	69.3¢
Will Thatcher Demko record 4+ shutouts?	Sports	No	$85	78.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$84	84.1¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$81	77.9¢
Will Arvid Soderblom record 4+ shutouts?	Sports	No	$69	84.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$62	23.9¢
Will the New York Rangers record 100+ points?	Sports	No	$56	79.9¢
Will Aleksander Barkov record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$55	91.5¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?	Sports	No	$54	63.8¢
Will the Seattle Kraken record 100+ points?	Sports	No	$53	89.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$48	87.5¢
Will Connor Ingram record 4+ shutouts?	Sports	No	$46	94.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	No	$44	38.5¢
Will Ivan Demidov record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$42	59.9¢
Will Boston Bruins advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?	Sports	No	$40	66.7¢
Will Petr Mrazek record 4+ shutouts?	Sports	No	$40	95.2¢
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2028?	Politics	No	$39	76.8¢
Will Brady Tkachuk record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$39	86.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$38	12.2¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	42.5¢
Will Ilya Samsonov record 4+ shutouts?	Sports	No	$35	90.0¢
Will Nick Suzuki record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$35	88.9¢
Will Connor Bedard record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$34	68.6¢
Will Detroit Red Wings advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?	Sports	No	$34	88.0¢
Will Pavel Buchnevich record 100+ points?	Sports	No	$30	93.8¢
Will Ottawa Senators advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?	Sports	No	$29	73.5¢
Will the Los Angeles Kings record 100+ points?	Sports	No	$28	83.1¢

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
No$202 @ 78.9¢
USMCA extended in 2026?Politics
No$143 @ 57.6¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
No$115 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$104 @ 69.3¢
Will Thatcher Demko record 4+ shutouts?Sports
No$85 @ 78.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$84 @ 84.1¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$81 @ 77.9¢
Will Arvid Soderblom record 4+ shutouts?Sports
No$69 @ 84.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$62 @ 23.9¢
Will the New York Rangers record 100+ points?Sports
No$56 @ 79.9¢
Will Aleksander Barkov record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$55 @ 91.5¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?Sports
No$54 @ 63.8¢
Will the Seattle Kraken record 100+ points?Sports
No$53 @ 89.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$48 @ 87.5¢
Will Connor Ingram record 4+ shutouts?Sports
No$46 @ 94.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
No$44 @ 38.5¢
Will Ivan Demidov record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$42 @ 59.9¢
Will Boston Bruins advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?Sports
No$40 @ 66.7¢
Will Petr Mrazek record 4+ shutouts?Sports
No$40 @ 95.2¢
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2028?Politics
No$39 @ 76.8¢
Will Brady Tkachuk record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$39 @ 86.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$38 @ 12.2¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 42.5¢
Will Ilya Samsonov record 4+ shutouts?Sports
No$35 @ 90.0¢
Will Nick Suzuki record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$35 @ 88.9¢
Will Connor Bedard record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$34 @ 68.6¢
Will Detroit Red Wings advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?Sports
No$34 @ 88.0¢
Will Pavel Buchnevich record 100+ points?Sports
No$30 @ 93.8¢
Will Ottawa Senators advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?Sports
No$29 @ 73.5¢
Will the Los Angeles Kings record 100+ points?Sports
No$28 @ 83.1¢