0x0894…d819

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x08945ab0434cc8574c5b1588ebe5ef061f34d819
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

46% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

975

Avg size

$73

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (64/114)	+2%	114
Politics	67% (33/49)	+79%	49
Geopolitics	33% (3/9)	-15%	9
Crypto	67% (6/9)	-61%	9
Sports	25% (1/4)	-95%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other114 bets
Hit rate
56% (64/114)
ROI
+2%
Politics49 bets
Hit rate
67% (33/49)
ROI
+79%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-15%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
-61%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-95%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

58% hit · 108/186

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$794	46.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?	No	$180	36.0¢	Lost
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)	Toronto Tempo	$601	49.9¢	Lost
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners	Under	$1.1k	29.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nasty" during White House Correspondents Dinner?	No	$96	57.5¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?	No	$215	47.0¢	Lost
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)	Seattle Storm	$540	54.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 28?	No	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$100	76.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$105	34.0¢	Lost
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)	Phoenix Mercury	$408	55.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?	Yes	$216	72.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 4?	No	$100	2.9¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$810	54.0¢	Won
Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $100k in 2025?	No	$180	0.9¢	Lost
Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $100k in 2025?	Yes	$76	60.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?	Yes	$1.1k	82.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$87	22.2¢	Lost
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$7	3.5¢	Lost
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?	No	$740	75.7¢	Won
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?	Yes	$509	35.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$3	74.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$182	15.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$31	6.2¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid reach $38 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$294	75.0¢	Won
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$8	4.1¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$89	30.7¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?	Yes	$246	82.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$200	84.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$845	87.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$190	38.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$612	61.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?	No	$256	85.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	No	$463	62.3¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$2.1k	44.3¢	Won
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$806	42.5¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$243	81.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$253	14.0¢	Lost
Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5)	Chicago Sky	$538	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$387	77.0¢	Won
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$228	22.8¢	Won
Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	$378	75.5¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No	$406	34.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$3.8k	78.4¢	Won

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$794 @ 46.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?Lost
No$180 @ 36.0¢
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)Lost
Toronto Tempo$601 @ 49.9¢
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 5.5 CornersLost
Under$1.1k @ 29.8¢
Will Trump say "Nasty" during White House Correspondents Dinner?Lost
No$96 @ 57.5¢
Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$215 @ 47.0¢
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)Lost
Seattle Storm$540 @ 54.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 28?Lost
No$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
Yes$100 @ 76.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 34.0¢
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Lost
Phoenix Mercury$408 @ 55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$216 @ 72.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 4?Lost
No$100 @ 2.9¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$810 @ 54.0¢
Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $100k in 2025?Lost
No$180 @ 0.9¢
Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $100k in 2025?Won
Yes$76 @ 60.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$87 @ 22.2¢
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.5¢
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?Won
No$740 @ 75.7¢
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?Lost
Yes$509 @ 35.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 74.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$182 @ 15.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$31 @ 6.2¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $38 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$294 @ 75.0¢
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.1¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$89 @ 30.7¢
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?Won
Yes$246 @ 82.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 84.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$845 @ 87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$190 @ 38.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$612 @ 61.2¢
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?Won
No$256 @ 85.2¢
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Lost
No$463 @ 62.3¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 44.3¢
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$806 @ 42.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$243 @ 81.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$253 @ 14.0¢
Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5)Won
Chicago Sky$538 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
Yes$387 @ 77.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$228 @ 22.8¢
Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?Won
No$378 @ 75.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Won
No$406 @ 34.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$3.8k @ 78.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$3.0k	73.8¢
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?	Crypto	No	$2.1k	85.0¢
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	—	No	$1.1k	39.1¢
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners	—	Under	$1.1k	29.8¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$794	46.3¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?	—	Yes	$671	16.8¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	—	Yes	$647	71.9¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?	—	No	$645	43.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Politics	Yes	$606	62.0¢
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)	—	Toronto Tempo	$601	49.9¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever	—	Indiana Fever	$571	51.0¢
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)	—	Seattle Storm	$540	54.0¢
Spread: Portland Fire (-2.5)	—	Toronto Tempo	$517	51.8¢
Spurs vs. Thunder	—	Spurs	$497	30.8¢
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)	—	Phoenix Mercury	$405	55.0¢
Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?	—	No	$215	47.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$200	4.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$196	27.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$190	38.0¢
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$183	61.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	—	No	$183	61.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?	Politics	Yes	$180	12.0¢
Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?	—	No	$180	36.0¢
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	—	Avalanche	$165	16.5¢
Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	—	No	$144	43.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$140	56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$113	37.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$105	34.0¢
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	—	Yes	$100	76.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$98	10.0¢

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$3.0k @ 73.8¢
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?Crypto
No$2.1k @ 85.0¢
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?—
No$1.1k @ 39.1¢
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Corners—
Under$1.1k @ 29.8¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$794 @ 46.3¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?—
Yes$671 @ 16.8¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?—
Yes$647 @ 71.9¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?—
No$645 @ 43.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
Yes$606 @ 62.0¢
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)—
Toronto Tempo$601 @ 49.9¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever—
Indiana Fever$571 @ 51.0¢
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)—
Seattle Storm$540 @ 54.0¢
Spread: Portland Fire (-2.5)—
Toronto Tempo$517 @ 51.8¢
Spurs vs. Thunder—
Spurs$497 @ 30.8¢
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)—
Phoenix Mercury$405 @ 55.0¢
Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?—
No$215 @ 47.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$200 @ 4.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?Politics
No$196 @ 27.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$190 @ 38.0¢
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$183 @ 61.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?—
No$183 @ 61.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?Politics
Yes$180 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?—
No$180 @ 36.0¢
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche—
Avalanche$165 @ 16.5¢
Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?—
No$144 @ 43.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$140 @ 56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?Politics
Yes$113 @ 37.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$105 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?—
Yes$100 @ 76.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$98 @ 10.0¢