0x0787…0ca3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0787a58e205a70320db638113fe8da18c8800ca3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

49% @ 45.3¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

3596

Avg size

$47

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (130/262)	+25%	262
Other	51% (109/214)	+20%	214
Geopolitics	47% (43/91)	+1%	91
Tech	53% (23/43)	+24%	43
Economy	40% (4/10)	+4%	10
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics262 bets
Hit rate
50% (130/262)
ROI
+25%
Other214 bets
Hit rate
51% (109/214)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics91 bets
Hit rate
47% (43/91)
ROI
+1%
Tech43 bets
Hit rate
53% (23/43)
ROI
+24%
Economy10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+4%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 309/621

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?	Yes	$4	19.0¢	Lost
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$15	76.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$126	49.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$143	55.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$81	31.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$126	84.3¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$1.3k	43.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1.6k	51.9¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$5	5.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$713	42.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$980	53.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$128	48.1¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$184	69.4¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$777	75.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$30	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$427	85.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$44	87.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$11	6.1¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$35	23.6¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	Yes	$95	65.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$283	84.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$22	3.9¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	No	$56	69.0¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	$65	80.0¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	9.7¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$5	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$238	84.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$334	29.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$135	31.8¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$234	55.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$99	66.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$63	14.5¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	0.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$225	34.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$420	64.9¢	Won
SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?	No	$166	86.7¢	Won
SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	3.9¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	54.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$459	76.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$102	20.3¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$289	9.6¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$148	3.7¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	No	$45	78.7¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$11	19.6¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$23	81.0¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Yes	$419	76.8¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$51	53.1¢	Won

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.0¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$15 @ 76.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$126 @ 49.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$143 @ 55.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$81 @ 31.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$126 @ 84.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$1.3k @ 43.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 51.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$713 @ 42.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$980 @ 53.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$128 @ 48.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$184 @ 69.4¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$777 @ 75.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$427 @ 85.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$44 @ 87.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.1¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$35 @ 23.6¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
Yes$95 @ 65.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$283 @ 84.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$22 @ 3.9¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
No$56 @ 69.0¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Won
Yes$65 @ 80.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.7¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$238 @ 84.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$334 @ 29.3¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$135 @ 31.8¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$234 @ 55.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$99 @ 66.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$63 @ 14.5¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$225 @ 34.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$420 @ 64.9¢
SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$166 @ 86.7¢
SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 54.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$459 @ 76.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$102 @ 20.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$289 @ 9.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$148 @ 3.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Won
No$45 @ 78.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$11 @ 19.6¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 81.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Won
Yes$419 @ 76.8¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 53.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.7k	84.0¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	85.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$846	83.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$598	26.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$587	87.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$526	95.6¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$524	83.0¢
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$472	81.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$344	40.9¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$343	76.1¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$341	22.7¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$336	77.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$249	92.4¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$227	81.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$201	84.4¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$199	79.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$190	95.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$190	77.4¢
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$186	90.6¢
Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$171	71.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$155	51.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$146	80.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Politics	No	$143	65.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$137	88.6¢
Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$137	89.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$137	91.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$131	64.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$109	82.5¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	Politics	Yes	$108	64.9¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$105	7.0¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 85.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$846 @ 83.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$598 @ 26.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$587 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$526 @ 95.6¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$524 @ 83.0¢
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?Geopolitics
No$472 @ 81.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Politics
Yes$344 @ 40.9¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$343 @ 76.1¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$341 @ 22.7¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$336 @ 77.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?Geopolitics
No$249 @ 92.4¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$227 @ 81.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$201 @ 84.4¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$199 @ 79.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$190 @ 95.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$190 @ 77.4¢
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$186 @ 90.6¢
Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$171 @ 71.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$155 @ 51.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Geopolitics
No$146 @ 80.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?Politics
No$143 @ 65.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$137 @ 88.6¢
Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$137 @ 89.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$137 @ 91.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$131 @ 64.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$109 @ 82.5¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?Politics
Yes$108 @ 64.9¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Politics
Yes$105 @ 7.0¢