0x0787…0ca3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0787a58e205a70320db638113fe8da18c8800ca3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

48% @ 38.5¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

345

Avg size

$36

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	46% (18/39)	+6%	39
Other	43% (6/14)	+77%	14
Tech	75% (3/4)	+21%	4
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-1%	4
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics39 bets
Hit rate
46% (18/39)
ROI
+6%
Other14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
+77%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-1%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

45% hit · 28/62

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$99	66.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$17	5.7¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$2.4k	61.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$405	7.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$148	74.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$52	26.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$530	36.4¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$391	41.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	$1	4.8¢	Lost
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?	Yes	$441	63.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?	Yes	$47	4.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$276	34.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$521	65.1¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$19	3.3¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	$12	33.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$1.0k	43.6¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$244	10.2¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	No	$33	7.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	Yes	$236	84.4¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$305	34.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	62.3¢	Won
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?	No	$127	9.0¢	Won
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?	Yes	$182	13.2¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	Yes	$330	82.5¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$42	81.9¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	55.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$805	31.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	No	$62	26.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$134	68.0¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	81.3¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$51	53.1¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$342	85.1¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	No	$20	4.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Yes	$445	89.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	89.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	$100	89.6¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	No	$188	83.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	Yes	$45	19.9¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$27	8.3¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$75	87.9¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$5	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$197	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	23.5¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$99 @ 66.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 61.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$405 @ 7.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$148 @ 74.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$530 @ 36.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$391 @ 41.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.8¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Won
Yes$441 @ 63.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$47 @ 4.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$276 @ 34.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$521 @ 65.1¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Lost
No$19 @ 3.3¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 6.0¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 33.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$1.0k @ 43.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$244 @ 10.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Lost
No$33 @ 7.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Won
Yes$236 @ 84.4¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$305 @ 34.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 62.3¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?Won
No$127 @ 9.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?Lost
Yes$182 @ 13.2¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Won
Yes$330 @ 82.5¢
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$42 @ 81.9¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 55.2¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$805 @ 31.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Lost
No$62 @ 26.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
Yes$134 @ 68.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 81.3¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 53.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$342 @ 85.1¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 4.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$445 @ 89.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$57 @ 89.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.6¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Won
No$188 @ 83.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 19.9¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$27 @ 8.3¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$75 @ 87.9¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$197 @ 85.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 23.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	98.8¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$949	94.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?	—	Yes	$754	86.2¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?	—	No	$745	95.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?	—	Yes	$372	95.8¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 22?	—	Yes	$262	87.2¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?	—	Yes	$254	64.3¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$241	86.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$190	95.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$181	90.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 24?	—	Yes	$172	94.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$137	88.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$136	77.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$134	79.6¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?	—	No	$130	79.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	—	No	$112	58.7¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$100	66.3¢
Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet?	—	Yes	$93	93.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	—	No	$91	45.5¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$89	86.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$82	82.0¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?	—	No	$80	94.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$78	78.0¢
Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?	—	No	$73	92.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$61	25.4¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?	—	No	$48	96.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 17, 2026?	—	No	$47	93.9¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?	—	No	$47	93.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Tech	No	$43	43.5¢
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?	—	Yes	$43	92.5¢

Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 98.8¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?—
No$949 @ 94.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?—
Yes$754 @ 86.2¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?—
No$745 @ 95.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?—
Yes$372 @ 95.8¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 22?—
Yes$262 @ 87.2¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?—
Yes$254 @ 64.3¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$241 @ 86.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$190 @ 95.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$181 @ 90.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 24?—
Yes$172 @ 94.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$137 @ 88.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$136 @ 77.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
No$134 @ 79.6¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?—
No$130 @ 79.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?—
No$112 @ 58.7¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$100 @ 66.3¢
Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet?—
Yes$93 @ 93.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?—
No$91 @ 45.5¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$89 @ 86.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?—
No$80 @ 94.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?—
No$73 @ 92.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$61 @ 25.4¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?—
No$48 @ 96.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 17, 2026?—
No$47 @ 93.9¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?—
No$47 @ 93.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Tech
No$43 @ 43.5¢
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?—
Yes$43 @ 92.5¢