0x0740…8a92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x07405d21b26f03d5d157ec25e8cb30af6ace8a92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.0pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

62% @ 54.5¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

351

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	45% (13/29)	+22%	29
Other	34% (10/29)	-16%	29
Sports	41% (11/27)	-1%	27
Geopolitics	75% (6/8)	+32%	8
Tech	67% (4/6)	+68%	6

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
45% (13/29)
ROI
+22%
Other29 bets
Hit rate
34% (10/29)
ROI
-16%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
41% (11/27)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+32%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+68%

Track record

44% hit · 44/99

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$6	65.5¢	Won
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	$5	40.1¢	Won
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Bosnia and Herzegovina	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$7	66.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Monte	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	81.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	16.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$3	61.3¢	Won
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	No	$4	68.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$11	73.7¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$12	49.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	17.6¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$9	60.3¢	Won
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Legacy	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)	BetBoom Team	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$9	81.3¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$5	69.9¢	Won
Jets vs. Canucks	Canucks	$20	44.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$25	84.3¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	No	$4	77.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$12	66.8¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$6	78.7¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$5	35.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	22.5¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$91	79.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	29.3¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$4	68.0¢	Lost
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$24	77.2¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$5	73.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.6¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	BetBoom Team	$1	55.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$6	66.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$75	79.2¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$9	15.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	19.7¢	Won
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	33.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$6	75.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$6	80.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$5	42.4¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	$6	87.3¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$6	63.8¢	Lost
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)	9z	$1	36.0¢	Won
Rockets vs. Magic	Magic	$10	44.0¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$25	86.1¢	Won

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$6 @ 65.5¢
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Won
No$5 @ 40.1¢
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)Lost
Bosnia and Herzegovina$1 @ 4.9¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Monte$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 16.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$3 @ 61.3¢
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?Won
No$4 @ 68.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 73.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$12 @ 49.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 17.6¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$9 @ 60.3¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Legacy$1 @ 40.0¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)Lost
BetBoom Team$1 @ 48.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 81.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.9¢
Jets vs. CanucksLost
Canucks$20 @ 44.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$25 @ 84.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Lost
No$4 @ 77.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 66.8¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$6 @ 78.7¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$91 @ 79.0¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 29.3¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$24 @ 77.2¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.6¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1Won
BetBoom Team$1 @ 55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$6 @ 66.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$75 @ 79.2¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$9 @ 15.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 19.7¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 33.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$6 @ 75.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 80.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$5 @ 42.4¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Won
No$6 @ 87.3¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
No$6 @ 63.8¢
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)Won
9z$1 @ 36.0¢
Rockets vs. MagicLost
Magic$10 @ 44.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 86.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$9	93.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8	83.0¢
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Sports	Yes	$6	16.2¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	OpenAI	$6	20.5¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	68.4¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	No	$6	76.3¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	80.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$6	75.4¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$6	35.7¢
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	Politics	Yes	$6	39.3¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$6	87.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Politics	No	$6	78.9¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$6	40.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$6	35.9¢
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$5	60.9¢
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Sports	No	$5	68.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Politics	No	$5	94.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$4	70.0¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4	64.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	24.4¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4	79.7¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$4	77.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	46.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$3	69.6¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	—	No	$3	63.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$3	83.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	60.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$3	35.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Tech	Yes	$2	28.8¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$2	84.0¢

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Sports
Yes$6 @ 16.2¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
OpenAI$6 @ 20.5¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 68.4¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
No$6 @ 76.3¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 80.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$6 @ 75.4¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$6 @ 35.7¢
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?Politics
Yes$6 @ 39.3¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 87.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics
No$6 @ 78.9¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$6 @ 40.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$6 @ 35.9¢
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$5 @ 60.9¢
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?Sports
No$5 @ 68.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4 @ 64.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 24.4¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$4 @ 79.7¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 46.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$3 @ 69.6¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?—
No$3 @ 63.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$3 @ 83.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 60.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Tech
Yes$2 @ 28.8¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$2 @ 84.0¢