0x0711…f03c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0711e162e05349de3d87626dea4285d08537f03c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.4pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

37% @ 23.4¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

304

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	33% (9/27)	+18%	27
Tech	24% (5/21)	-6%	21
Other	38% (3/8)	-12%	8
Geopolitics	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+220%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics27 bets
Hit rate
33% (9/27)
ROI
+18%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
24% (5/21)
ROI
-6%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+220%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

25% hit · 18/71

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$30	6.2¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$9	89.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?	No	$29	4.4¢	Lost
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?	Yes	$12	67.0¢	Won
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$6	4.2¢	Lost
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$25	69.2¢	Lost
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$7	71.0¢	Won
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$15	4.4¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$84	28.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$161	29.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	4.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$9	6.5¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$8	64.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$30	59.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	32.6¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$63	67.7¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$10	5.3¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$2	2.9¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$53	55.6¢	Lost
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	No	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	2.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$117	39.2¢	Won
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	$4	19.9¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$8	20.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	Yes	$7	85.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?	Yes	$17	47.8¢	Won

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$30 @ 6.2¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?Lost
No$29 @ 4.4¢
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 67.0¢
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.2¢
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$25 @ 69.2¢
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$7 @ 71.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$84 @ 28.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$161 @ 29.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 4.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.5¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$8 @ 64.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$30 @ 59.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 32.6¢
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$63 @ 67.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.3¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$53 @ 55.6¢
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?Lost
No$2 @ 1.8¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.5¢
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$117 @ 39.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Won
Yes$4 @ 19.9¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$8 @ 20.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Won
Yes$7 @ 85.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?Won
Yes$17 @ 47.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?	Culture	No	$244	92.9¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?	Culture	No	$191	95.7¢
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?	Politics	No	$159	64.9¢
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$156	92.3¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$139	56.8¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Politics	No	$106	66.0¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$96	84.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$96	67.9¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$75	92.3¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$73	82.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama	Politics	Nothing	$67	80.9¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?	Culture	Yes	$60	72.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$57	91.8¢
Blue wave in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	71.7¢
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	Politics	No	$54	90.5¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Politics	No	$54	93.1¢
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?	Politics	Yes	$53	22.9¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$52	65.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?	Politics	No	$51	78.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?	Politics	No	$49	82.6¢
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?	Politics	No	$48	40.9¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Politics	No	$48	96.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$48	67.5¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$46	60.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?	Politics	No	$46	97.3¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Politics	No	$45	88.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$44	68.8¢
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?	Politics	No	$43	75.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	No	$42	56.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	No	$41	75.0¢

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?Culture
No$244 @ 92.9¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?Culture
No$191 @ 95.7¢
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?Politics
No$159 @ 64.9¢
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$156 @ 92.3¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$139 @ 56.8¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics
No$106 @ 66.0¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$96 @ 84.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$96 @ 67.9¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$75 @ 92.3¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$73 @ 82.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaPolitics
Nothing$67 @ 80.9¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Culture
Yes$60 @ 72.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$57 @ 91.8¢
Blue wave in 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 71.7¢
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?Politics
No$54 @ 90.5¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Politics
No$54 @ 93.1¢
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?Politics
Yes$53 @ 22.9¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$52 @ 65.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?Politics
No$51 @ 78.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?Politics
No$49 @ 82.6¢
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Politics
No$48 @ 40.9¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Politics
No$48 @ 96.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Politics
Yes$48 @ 67.5¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Politics
Yes$46 @ 60.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Politics
No$46 @ 97.3¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 88.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$44 @ 68.8¢
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?Politics
No$43 @ 75.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
No$42 @ 56.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
No$41 @ 75.0¢