0x0704…1858

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x07046535ff9a910d7343a2c319a3e62234621858
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.6pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

84% @ 64.7¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

3005

Avg size

$519

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (24/41)	+20%	41
Politics	50% (4/8)	+24%	8
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+117%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
59% (24/41)
ROI
+20%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+24%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+117%

Track record

58% hit · 29/50

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Circle IPO in 2025?	No	$3.4k	35.2¢	Lost
Yoon arrested by Friday?	Yes	$35	35.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?	No	$16	15.5¢	Won
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?	Yes	$817	27.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$75.7k	86.1¢	Won
Yoon arrested by January 31?	Yes	$114	37.9¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?	No	$49	36.6¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	$161.1k	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump's inaugural address be 20 minutes or more?	Yes	$114	57.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?	No	$93	62.0¢	Won
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?	No	$0	87.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?	No	$233	3.7¢	Lost
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$10.3k	29.8¢	Lost
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$455	65.0¢	Won
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?	No	$1.0k	51.8¢	Lost
Kraken IPO in 2025?	No	$2.4k	46.0¢	Won
Will Coinbase acquire Deribit?	No	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$248.0k	80.1¢	Won
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?	No	$1.7k	16.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?	No	$2.6k	87.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$90.3k	86.9¢	Won
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?	No	$9.6k	56.3¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?	No	$532	53.2¢	Won
Will Trudeau resign by Friday?	Yes	$91	83.1¢	Won
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?	Yes	$206	17.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday?	No	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Palisades fire burns 40,000 or more acres by Friday?	No	$9	43.0¢	Won
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?	Yes	$8	42.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?	No	$11	38.0¢	Lost
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday?	No	$49	27.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16.6k	78.3¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?	No	$570	40.3¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?	Yes	$187.4k	75.9¢	Won
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks?	No	$655	79.2¢	Won
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?	Yes	$7	37.0¢	Lost
US national Solana reserve in 2025?	No	$109	86.0¢	Won
US recession in 2025?	No	$561	81.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	$237.0k	87.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	$151.3k	84.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$64	85.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.7k	21.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.7k	21.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$62	23.2¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.7k	21.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	88.1¢	Won
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	No	$108.6k	83.2¢	Won
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?	No	$132.6k	79.5¢	Won
US bank failure before March?	No	$689	62.7¢	Lost

Circle IPO in 2025?Lost
No$3.4k @ 35.2¢
Yoon arrested by Friday?Lost
Yes$35 @ 35.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?Won
No$16 @ 15.5¢
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?Lost
Yes$817 @ 27.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$75.7k @ 86.1¢
Yoon arrested by January 31?Won
Yes$114 @ 37.9¢
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?Lost
No$49 @ 36.6¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Won
No$161.1k @ 80.0¢
Will Trump's inaugural address be 20 minutes or more?Won
Yes$114 @ 57.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?Won
No$93 @ 62.0¢
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?Won
No$0 @ 87.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Lost
No$233 @ 3.7¢
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?Lost
No$10.3k @ 29.8¢
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?Won
Yes$455 @ 65.0¢
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?Lost
No$1.0k @ 51.8¢
Kraken IPO in 2025?Won
No$2.4k @ 46.0¢
Will Coinbase acquire Deribit?Lost
No$2 @ 23.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$248.0k @ 80.1¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Lost
No$1.7k @ 16.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?Won
No$2.6k @ 87.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$90.3k @ 86.9¢
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?Won
No$9.6k @ 56.3¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?Won
No$532 @ 53.2¢
Will Trudeau resign by Friday?Won
Yes$91 @ 83.1¢
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?Lost
Yes$206 @ 17.1¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday?Lost
No$5 @ 21.0¢
Palisades fire burns 40,000 or more acres by Friday?Won
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?Won
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?Lost
No$11 @ 38.0¢
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday?Lost
No$49 @ 27.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$16.6k @ 78.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?Lost
No$570 @ 40.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$187.4k @ 75.9¢
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks?Won
No$655 @ 79.2¢
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?Lost
Yes$7 @ 37.0¢
US national Solana reserve in 2025?Won
No$109 @ 86.0¢
US recession in 2025?Won
No$561 @ 81.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$237.0k @ 87.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$151.3k @ 84.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
No$64 @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7.7k @ 21.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7.7k @ 21.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$62 @ 23.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$7.7k @ 21.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 88.1¢
Ethereum all time high in 2024?Won
No$108.6k @ 83.2¢
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?Won
No$132.6k @ 79.5¢
US bank failure before March?Lost
No$689 @ 62.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$250.0k	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$250.0k	50.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$81	21.7¢
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday?	—	No	$28	27.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday?	—	No	$0	21.0¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$250.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$250.0k @ 50.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$81 @ 21.7¢
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday?—
No$28 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday?—
No$0 @ 21.0¢