← Smart money
0x0699…86a1
ProfitableEdge
+15.8pp
ROI
+128%
Win rate
31% @ 15.7¢
Brier
0.208
Resolved
89
Avg size
$193
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 33% (2/6) | +180% | 6 |
| Politics | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Sports | 100% (1/1) | +656% | 1 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- +180%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +656%
Track record
23% hit · 3/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | $94 | 0.4¢ | Lost |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes | $560 | 14.0¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | No | $1.1k | 28.0¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | $398 | 12.0¢ | Won |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | Yes | $693 | 22.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $4.0k | 13.2¢ | Won |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | $1.4k | 24.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $3.3k | 26.2¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | No | $500 | 6.0¢ | Lost |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | $3.3k | 10.4¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | $80 | 0.2¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Yes | $600 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | No | $1.1k | 21.8¢ | Lost |
- Yes$94 @ 0.4¢
- Yes$560 @ 14.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 28.0¢
- Yes$398 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$693 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 13.2¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 24.0¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 26.2¢
- No$500 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 10.4¢
- Yes$80 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$600 @ 5.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 21.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Geopolitics | No | $600 | 15.0¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Geopolitics | No | $294 | 7.0¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? | Geopolitics | No | $118 | 5.4¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Politics | No | $48 | 6.2¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Politics | No | $4 | 3.9¢ |
- No$600 @ 15.0¢
- No$294 @ 7.0¢
- No$118 @ 5.4¢
- No$48 @ 6.2¢
- No$4 @ 3.9¢