0x0539…70f9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0539e938ded9dcde44a382de5ef5b2f9208470f9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.0pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

36% @ 25.7¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

1436

Avg size

$65

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (68/300)	+8%	300
Sports	19% (12/64)	+71%	64
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Politics	25% (1/4)	-94%	4
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+43%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other300 bets
Hit rate
23% (68/300)
ROI
+8%
Sports64 bets
Hit rate
19% (12/64)
ROI
+71%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-94%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 82/374

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Packers (-2.5)	Packers	$80	46.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$24	71.0¢	Won
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$48	48.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$92	13.7¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$66	42.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$100	29.6¢	Lost
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$14	3.7¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)	Thunder	$112	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$25	45.4¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	$121	28.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$20	11.0¢	Lost
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$120	48.0¢	Lost
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5	Over 4.5	$92	30.0¢	Lost
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)	Steelers	$125	55.0¢	Lost
Buccaneers vs. Panthers	Panthers	$45	42.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?	Yes	$56	28.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	Yes	$20	7.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.9k	9.4¢	Lost
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$11	11.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$14	9.1¢	Lost
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?	Yes	$133	12.8¢	Lost
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025?	Yes	$40	0.9¢	Lost
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)	Vikings	$40	53.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	$141	23.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$15	43.8¢	Lost
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$37	37.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	Yes	$18	11.4¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1.9k	10.7¢	Lost
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5	Over	$100	52.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.6k	5.4¢	Lost
Miami vs. Indiana	Indiana	$450	75.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$99	5.4¢	Won
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	$81	17.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$127	34.0¢	Won
Eagles vs. Bills	Bills	$230	34.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	Yes	$93	37.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	Yes	$35	10.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	$36	5.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran?	Yes	$31	3.9¢	Lost
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$165	10.1¢	Lost
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5	Under	$160	59.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$22	9.0¢	Lost
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$42	2.8¢	Lost
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$14	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Knicks	$132	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$10	3.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	$118	16.0¢	Won
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$31	1.8¢	Lost

Spread: Packers (-2.5)Lost
Packers$80 @ 46.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$24 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$48 @ 48.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.7¢
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$92 @ 13.7¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$66 @ 42.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 29.6¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$14 @ 3.7¢
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lost
Thunder$112 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$25 @ 45.4¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Lost
Yes$121 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 11.0¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$120 @ 48.0¢
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5Lost
Over 4.5$92 @ 30.0¢
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Lost
Steelers$125 @ 55.0¢
Buccaneers vs. PanthersWon
Panthers$45 @ 42.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?Won
Yes$56 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 9.4¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$11 @ 11.1¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$14 @ 9.1¢
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?Lost
Yes$133 @ 12.8¢
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.9¢
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Lost
Vikings$40 @ 53.0¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Won
Yes$141 @ 23.3¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
No$15 @ 43.8¢
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Lost
Yes$18 @ 11.4¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 10.7¢
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5Lost
Over$100 @ 52.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 5.4¢
Miami vs. IndianaWon
Indiana$450 @ 75.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?Won
Yes$99 @ 5.4¢
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Won
Yes$81 @ 17.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$127 @ 34.0¢
Eagles vs. BillsLost
Bills$230 @ 34.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Lost
Yes$93 @ 37.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Lost
Yes$35 @ 10.9¢
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?Lost
Yes$36 @ 5.0¢
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran?Lost
Yes$31 @ 3.9¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$165 @ 10.1¢
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5Won
Under$160 @ 59.0¢
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.0¢
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$42 @ 2.8¢
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$14 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Won
Knicks$132 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$10 @ 3.6¢
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Egypt?Won
Yes$118 @ 16.0¢
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	1.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	18.2¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	2.7¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	1.0¢
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.5k	8.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	7.9¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.3k	6.8¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.2k	7.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	56.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	1.8¢
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.1k	4.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	39.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$952	7.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$875	41.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$672	56.0¢
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$659	4.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$272	2.1¢
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$258	3.9¢
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$235	1.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$220	29.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$158	13.2¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$129	0.8¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$115	2.4¢
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$110	10.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$99	18.0¢
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$76	0.8¢
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$74	0.9¢
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$51	6.4¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$46	9.1¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$45	9.0¢

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 1.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 18.2¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 2.7¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 1.0¢
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$1.5k @ 8.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 7.9¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$1.3k @ 6.8¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$1.2k @ 7.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 56.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 1.8¢
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$1.1k @ 4.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 39.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$952 @ 7.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$875 @ 41.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$672 @ 56.0¢
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$659 @ 4.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$272 @ 2.1¢
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$258 @ 3.9¢
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$235 @ 1.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$220 @ 29.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$158 @ 13.2¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$129 @ 0.8¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$115 @ 2.4¢
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$110 @ 10.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$99 @ 18.0¢
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$76 @ 0.8¢
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$74 @ 0.9¢
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$51 @ 6.4¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$46 @ 9.1¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$45 @ 9.0¢