0x04dc…2387

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04dcbd9b805b220a9b2d27e4d9e649ed07902387
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

39% @ 33.0¢

Brier

0.148

Resolved

839

Avg size

$62

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (39/113)	-28%	113
Politics	50% (25/50)	+58%	50
Tech	38% (14/37)	+2%	37
Economy	40% (12/30)	+29%	30
Culture	54% (14/26)	+40%	26
Geopolitics	47% (8/17)	+102%	17
Sports	42% (5/12)	+14%	12
Science	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other113 bets
Hit rate
35% (39/113)
ROI
-28%
Politics50 bets
Hit rate
50% (25/50)
ROI
+58%
Tech37 bets
Hit rate
38% (14/37)
ROI
+2%
Economy30 bets
Hit rate
40% (12/30)
ROI
+29%
Culture26 bets
Hit rate
54% (14/26)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
+102%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
42% (5/12)
ROI
+14%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

41% hit · 118/286

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?	Yes	$12	1.1¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	$214	63.9¢	Won
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	30.9¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	No	$63	88.9¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	No	$415	65.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$341	12.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$4	0.6¢	Lost
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	$114	20.0¢	Won
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$21	34.0¢	Lost
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	Yes	$436	34.7¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$11	11.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$62	32.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$15	9.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$29	82.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	No	$18	87.1¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	Yes	$21	8.1¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$293	83.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$39	8.0¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	6.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$350	21.1¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in May?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$62	26.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$573	58.1¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	No	$697	60.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	$24	59.0¢	Lost
Will Caleb Downs be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	No	$710	75.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$70	69.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	1.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$623	63.6¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$134	37.7¢	Lost
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?	No	$1.3k	89.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?	No	$1.2k	86.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?	Yes	$80	10.4¢	Lost
Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	$3	2.1¢	Lost
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May?	Yes	$7	5.2¢	Lost
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	$19	81.9¢	Won
Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	No	$194	87.0¢	Won
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	Yes	$17	9.2¢	Lost
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$13	3.0¢	Lost
Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	$2	5.6¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$925	58.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$137	21.6¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$61	14.4¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$21	2.3¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$39	29.0¢	Lost

Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.1¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
No$214 @ 63.9¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.9¢
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?Won
No$63 @ 88.9¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Won
No$415 @ 65.0¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$341 @ 12.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Won
Yes$114 @ 20.0¢
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$21 @ 34.0¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?Won
Yes$436 @ 34.7¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$62 @ 32.3¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 9.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 82.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?Won
No$18 @ 87.1¢
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?Lost
Yes$21 @ 8.1¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$293 @ 83.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Lost
Yes$39 @ 8.0¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$350 @ 21.1¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$62 @ 26.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$573 @ 58.1¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Lost
No$697 @ 60.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?Lost
Yes$24 @ 59.0¢
Will Caleb Downs be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Won
No$710 @ 75.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$70 @ 69.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$623 @ 63.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$134 @ 37.7¢
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.0¢
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?Won
No$1.2k @ 86.0¢
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?Lost
Yes$80 @ 10.4¢
Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.2¢
Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Won
No$19 @ 81.9¢
Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?Won
No$194 @ 87.0¢
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?Lost
Yes$17 @ 9.2¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$13 @ 3.0¢
Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Lost
No$2 @ 5.6¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Won
No$925 @ 58.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$137 @ 21.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 14.4¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$39 @ 29.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	—	No	$938	74.2¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$859	81.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	—	No	$819	65.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$762	84.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$574	61.9¢
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$498	83.0¢
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?	—	No	$485	80.2¢
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	—	No	$437	82.0¢
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	No	$436	84.9¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	—	No	$433	51.7¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in August?	—	No	$381	95.1¢
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	—	No	$360	27.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$342	65.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$333	29.4¢
Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?	—	No	$328	35.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	—	No	$324	67.5¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	—	Yes	$321	43.8¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$307	32.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$295	36.8¢
Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	—	No	$282	88.0¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.0M in August?	—	No	$282	70.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$280	59.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	No	$272	90.0¢
Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	—	Yes	$271	37.6¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$271	54.2¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$271	64.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	—	No	$268	66.4¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	—	No	$267	90.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$244	41.1¢
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Politics	No	$233	72.6¢

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?—
No$938 @ 74.2¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$859 @ 81.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?—
No$819 @ 65.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$762 @ 84.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$574 @ 61.9¢
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$498 @ 83.0¢
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?—
No$485 @ 80.2¢
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?—
No$437 @ 82.0¢
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
No$436 @ 84.9¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?—
No$433 @ 51.7¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in August?—
No$381 @ 95.1¢
Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?—
No$360 @ 27.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$342 @ 65.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
Yes$333 @ 29.4¢
Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?—
No$328 @ 35.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?—
No$324 @ 67.5¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?—
Yes$321 @ 43.8¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$307 @ 32.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$295 @ 36.8¢
Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?—
No$282 @ 88.0¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.0M in August?—
No$282 @ 70.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$280 @ 59.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
No$272 @ 90.0¢
Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?—
Yes$271 @ 37.6¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$271 @ 54.2¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech
Yes$271 @ 64.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?—
No$268 @ 66.4¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?—
No$267 @ 90.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$244 @ 41.1¢
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Politics
No$233 @ 72.6¢