0x04dc…2387

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other1299 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (523/1299)

  ROI

  +0%

• Politics174 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (87/174)

  ROI

  +39%

• Economy95 bets

  Hit rate

  49% (47/95)

  ROI

  +25%

• Tech73 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (31/73)

  ROI

  -3%

• Culture59 bets

  Hit rate

  49% (29/59)

  ROI

  +23%

• Geopolitics25 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (12/25)

  ROI

  +117%

• Sports16 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (8/16)

  ROI

  +17%

• Crypto13 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (7/13)

  ROI

  +29%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?Lost
  No$197 @ 80.9¢
• Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$16 @ 81.7¢
• No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Won
  No$32 @ 22.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?Won
  Yes$76 @ 83.0¢
• Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?Won
  Yes$122 @ 36.8¢
• Will voters pick the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver "Peacemaker" (.45 Colt) as the state gun of Idaho?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?Won
  No$210 @ 84.0¢
• Will voters pick the Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) as the state gun of Idaho?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
• Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?Lost
  No$10 @ 9.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
  No$92 @ 11.0¢
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 13.6¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
  No$192 @ 48.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$574 @ 61.9¢
• Will Democrats win the Michigan Governor election and Republicans win the Michigan Senate election?Lost
  Yes$82 @ 19.0¢
• Will Republicans sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 7.0¢
• Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?Lost
  No$328 @ 35.3¢
• Will Republicans win the Michigan Governor election and Democrats win the Michigan Senate election?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
• Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor election?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 15.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  No$46 @ 78.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Won
  No$56 @ 15.0¢
• Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 4.8¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 19.2¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$244 @ 41.1¢
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$167 @ 82.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$36 @ 12.0¢
• Will AP call US House control by November 3, 10:59 PM?Won
  No$29 @ 71.5¢
• Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?Won
  No$26 @ 77.6¢
• Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
  No$63 @ 70.6¢
• Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
  No$19 @ 13.3¢
• Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 8.2¢
• Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
  No$33 @ 45.9¢
• Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
  No$41 @ 72.4¢
• Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
  No$1 @ 8.3¢
• Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the Texas Senate Election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$51 @ 35.6¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 11.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$280 @ 59.0¢
• Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  No$64 @ 85.0¢
• Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  No$73 @ 96.9¢
• Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
  Yes$154 @ 28.1¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Lost
  No$46 @ 19.0¢
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
• Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?Won
  No$280 @ 87.9¢
• Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?Won
  No$144 @ 72.0¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$77 @ 11.2¢
• Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?Won
  Yes$21 @ 17.0¢
• Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 20.0¢
• Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 16.0¢
• Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Won
  No$155 @ 68.0¢

Current positions

• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$644 @ 63.8¢
• Will the US lose between 0 and 25k jobs in October?Economy
  No$480 @ 78.8¢
• Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
  No$436 @ 84.9¢
• Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
  Yes$419 @ 49.6¢
• Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  No$360 @ 27.7¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$342 @ 65.0¢
• Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$336 @ 21.0¢
• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
  Yes$333 @ 29.4¢
• Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?Politics
  No$332 @ 32.9¢
• Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
  No$328 @ 65.2¢
• Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
  Yes$327 @ 43.7¢
• Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?Politics
  No$296 @ 83.0¢
• Will Oregon be the closest Governor's race in 2026?Politics
  No$294 @ 81.9¢
• Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  No$282 @ 88.0¢
• Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Sports
  Yes$279 @ 37.7¢
• Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?Culture
  No$275 @ 91.0¢
• Will Waymo launch in Philadelphia, PA by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$274 @ 76.4¢
• Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech
  Yes$271 @ 64.3¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$244 @ 41.1¢
• Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.3% and 1.5%?Economy
  No$223 @ 97.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?Politics
  No$210 @ 84.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$208 @ 72.7¢
• Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Culture
  No$203 @ 22.0¢
• Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  Yes$198 @ 41.6¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?Politics
  No$197 @ 80.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$192 @ 48.0¢
• Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$190 @ 53.9¢
• Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  Yes$187 @ 30.9¢
• Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?Politics
  No$185 @ 94.1¢
• Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?Economy
  No$179 @ 85.8¢