0x04c3…9a7c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04c30228da9e4346a2dd4e958499dfb81aef9a7c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

68% @ 58.9¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

292

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (31/53)	-29%	53
Politics	82% (27/33)	+53%	33
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	-42%	5
Tech	100% (1/1)	+22%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other53 bets
Hit rate
58% (31/53)
ROI
-29%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
82% (27/33)
ROI
+53%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-42%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

68% hit · 63/93

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$21	79.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	$32	61.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$909	76.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	32.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$2	82.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$60	67.7¢	Won
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	$50	81.8¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$3	75.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$490	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$28	72.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$21	83.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$7	13.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$3	77.0¢	Won
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	$1	57.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$10	74.5¢	Won
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$2	77.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$5	75.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$2	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Death to America" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$2	89.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$5	67.0¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	$20	7.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$3	57.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$30	86.0¢	Won
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	Yes	$1	77.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$2	87.0¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	No	$5	82.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$3	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$5	82.0¢	Won
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?	No	$3	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$28	76.8¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	No	$130	18.2¢	Lost
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	$5	5.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$10	49.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$38	63.7¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	3.3¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$130	74.1¢	Won
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$2	74.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$24	60.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$4	84.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$92	77.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pope" or "Leo" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$2	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	49.3¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	$21	72.8¢	Lost
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?	No	$2	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$10	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$20	4.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$3	87.0¢	Won
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	$6	80.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$60	66.1¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	$162	7.7¢	Lost

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$21 @ 79.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$32 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$909 @ 76.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 32.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 82.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$60 @ 67.7¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 81.8¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$3 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$490 @ 85.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 72.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$21 @ 83.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 77.0¢
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 74.5¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 77.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$2 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "Death to America" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$2 @ 89.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 67.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Lost
No$20 @ 7.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 57.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$30 @ 86.0¢
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?Won
Yes$1 @ 77.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 87.0¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
No$5 @ 82.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 82.0¢
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?Won
No$3 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$28 @ 76.8¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Lost
No$130 @ 18.2¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 49.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$38 @ 63.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$130 @ 74.1¢
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?Won
Yes$2 @ 74.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$24 @ 60.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 84.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$92 @ 77.7¢
Will Trump say "Pope" or "Leo" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$2 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 49.3¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
No$21 @ 72.8¢
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$3 @ 87.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 80.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 66.1¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$162 @ 7.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	42.1¢

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 42.1¢