0x04bf…7caf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04bf21c2527ae8d54a2f713a6420c608366c7caf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

46% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

4111

Avg size

$95

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (377/712)	+12%	712
Politics	57% (21/37)	-9%	37
Crypto	31% (4/13)	-61%	13
Sports	67% (6/9)	+1%	9
Tech	88% (7/8)	+21%	8
Geopolitics	63% (5/8)	-2%	8
Economy	40% (2/5)	-52%	5
Business	100% (1/1)	+49%	1

Other712 bets
Hit rate
53% (377/712)
ROI
+12%
Politics37 bets
Hit rate
57% (21/37)
ROI
-9%
Crypto13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-61%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+1%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-2%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-52%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%

Track record

53% hit · 423/793

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?	Yes	$49	4.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$1.4k	81.7¢	Won
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	Yes	$391	72.0¢	Lost
NHL Playoffs: Bruins vs. Sabres Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	$8	45.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$25	31.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.0k	69.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$439	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$1.0k	68.0¢	Won
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	No	$11	72.0¢	Won
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?	Yes	$220	32.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$836	82.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$1.0k	70.0¢	Lost
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$325	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?	No	$192	76.8¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$141	56.5¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$781	55.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?	Yes	$20	24.1¢	Lost
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?	No	$590	59.0¢	Won
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?	No	$200	8.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$570	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	No	$126	41.9¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$860	80.6¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$125	10.5¢	Lost
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$235	78.0¢	Won
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$1.0k	60.3¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$440	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$741	74.1¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$205	4.1¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$427	53.7¢	Won
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?	Yes	$124	24.8¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?	No	$567	56.7¢	Lost
Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	Yes	$2.9k	82.3¢	Won
Will Trump say “God / Hell” 10+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	No	$241	52.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?	Yes	$212	53.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$548	18.1¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will Player 21 win Beast Games: Season 2?	Yes	$57	0.8¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$288	82.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$147	81.7¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$1.4k	58.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?	Yes	$81	27.0¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$126	69.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	No	$145	58.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$897	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?	Yes	$155	31.0¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.0k	70.4¢	Won
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-64?	Yes	$152	18.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?	Yes	$72	34.1¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	$360	72.0¢	Won

Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$49 @ 4.9¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$1.4k @ 81.7¢
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Lost
Yes$391 @ 72.0¢
NHL Playoffs: Bruins vs. Sabres Total Games O/U 5.5Won
Over 5.5$8 @ 45.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$25 @ 31.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$1.0k @ 69.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$439 @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$1.0k @ 68.0¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Won
No$11 @ 72.0¢
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?Lost
Yes$220 @ 32.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$836 @ 82.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$1.0k @ 70.0¢
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
No$325 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?Won
No$192 @ 76.8¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$141 @ 56.5¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$781 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?Lost
Yes$20 @ 24.1¢
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?Won
No$590 @ 59.0¢
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Lost
No$200 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$570 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
No$126 @ 41.9¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$860 @ 80.6¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$125 @ 10.5¢
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$235 @ 78.0¢
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Canadian Election?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 60.3¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$440 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$741 @ 74.1¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$205 @ 4.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$427 @ 53.7¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?Won
Yes$124 @ 24.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Lost
No$567 @ 56.7¢
Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 82.3¢
Will Trump say “God / Hell” 10+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Lost
No$241 @ 52.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?Lost
Yes$212 @ 53.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$548 @ 18.1¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will Player 21 win Beast Games: Season 2?Lost
Yes$57 @ 0.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$288 @ 82.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$147 @ 81.7¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$1.4k @ 58.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$81 @ 27.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$126 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Lost
No$145 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$897 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?Lost
Yes$155 @ 31.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 70.4¢
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-64?Lost
Yes$152 @ 18.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 34.1¢
Games Total: O/U 3.5Won
Over$360 @ 72.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$11.0k	66.1¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	67.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	79.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$2.3k	52.2¢
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	Politics	No	$2.1k	70.8¢
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	72.3¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.6k	51.1¢
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?	Culture	No	$1.5k	89.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.4k	72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	71.5¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$1.3k	84.2¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.3k	76.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.2k	79.4¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$1.1k	55.1¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	82.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.0k	82.0¢
Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$950	45.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	No	$915	91.0¢
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?	Politics	No	$897	85.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$891	89.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$890	89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$780	78.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$760	50.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$693	75.5¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$646	64.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$639	58.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$630	63.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$593	79.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$530	53.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$510	68.0¢

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$11.0k @ 66.1¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$5.5k @ 67.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 79.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$2.3k @ 52.2¢
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?Politics
No$2.1k @ 70.8¢
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 72.3¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$1.6k @ 51.1¢
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?Culture
No$1.5k @ 89.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.4k @ 72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 71.5¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$1.3k @ 84.2¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
No$1.3k @ 76.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$1.2k @ 79.4¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$1.1k @ 55.1¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 82.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.0k @ 82.0¢
Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$950 @ 45.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
No$915 @ 91.0¢
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?Politics
No$897 @ 85.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$891 @ 89.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$780 @ 78.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$760 @ 50.7¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Crypto
No$693 @ 75.5¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$646 @ 64.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$639 @ 58.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$630 @ 63.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$593 @ 79.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$530 @ 53.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$510 @ 68.0¢