0x04bf…7caf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04bf21c2527ae8d54a2f713a6420c608366c7caf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

48% @ 44.1¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

4363

Avg size

$94

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (379/715)	+12%	715
Politics	60% (50/84)	+7%	84
Crypto	38% (6/16)	-51%	16
Tech	89% (8/9)	+19%	9
Sports	67% (6/9)	+1%	9
Geopolitics	67% (6/9)	+5%	9
Economy	40% (2/5)	-52%	5
Culture	25% (1/4)	-13%	4
Business	100% (1/1)	+49%	1

Other715 bets
Hit rate
53% (379/715)
ROI
+12%
Politics84 bets
Hit rate
60% (50/84)
ROI
+7%
Crypto16 bets
Hit rate
38% (6/16)
ROI
-51%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
+19%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+5%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-52%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-13%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%

Track record

54% hit · 459/852

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	No	$347	69.2¢	Lost
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?	No	$102	62.0¢	Lost
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	$1.2k	83.7¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	$736	78.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?	No	$165	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$651	74.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	$507	64.6¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	$376	47.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$760	50.7¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$400	80.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$230	46.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$450	60.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$511	71.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$211	65.2¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$305	61.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?	Yes	$294	63.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	$43	51.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$464	58.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$740	74.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$396	72.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	$174	58.0¢	Lost
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$104	26.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$228	45.5¢	Lost
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	$1.9k	71.6¢	Won
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	$22	76.8¢	Won
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	$40	84.0¢	Won
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?	Yes	$49	4.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$1.4k	81.7¢	Won
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	Yes	$391	72.0¢	Lost
0x01eec055…	Over 5.5	$8	45.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$25	31.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.0k	69.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$439	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$1.0k	68.0¢	Won
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	No	$11	72.0¢	Won
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?	Yes	$220	32.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$836	82.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$1.0k	70.0¢	Lost
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$325	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?	No	$192	76.8¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$141	56.5¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$781	55.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?	Yes	$20	24.1¢	Lost
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?	No	$590	59.0¢	Won
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?	No	$200	8.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$570	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	No	$126	41.9¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$860	80.6¢	Won

Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?Lost
No$347 @ 69.2¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?Lost
No$102 @ 62.0¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?Won
No$1.2k @ 83.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Won
No$736 @ 78.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?Won
No$165 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$651 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Won
Yes$507 @ 64.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$376 @ 47.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$760 @ 50.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$400 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 60.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$511 @ 71.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$211 @ 65.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?Won
Yes$294 @ 63.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
Yes$43 @ 51.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$464 @ 58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$740 @ 74.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$396 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Lost
No$174 @ 58.0¢
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Lost
Yes$104 @ 26.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$228 @ 45.5¢
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 71.6¢
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
No$22 @ 76.8¢
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
No$40 @ 84.0¢
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$49 @ 4.9¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$1.4k @ 81.7¢
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Lost
Yes$391 @ 72.0¢
0x01eec055…Won
Over 5.5$8 @ 45.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$25 @ 31.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$1.0k @ 69.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$439 @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$1.0k @ 68.0¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Won
No$11 @ 72.0¢
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?Lost
Yes$220 @ 32.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$836 @ 82.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$1.0k @ 70.0¢
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
No$325 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?Won
No$192 @ 76.8¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$141 @ 56.5¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$781 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?Lost
Yes$20 @ 24.1¢
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?Won
No$590 @ 59.0¢
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Lost
No$200 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$570 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
No$126 @ 41.9¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$860 @ 80.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$9.9k	66.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	79.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$2.2k	54.7¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.7k	76.9¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.6k	51.1¢
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?	Culture	No	$1.5k	89.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.4k	72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	71.5¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Culture	No	$1.2k	83.7¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	80.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.2k	79.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	79.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$1.1k	55.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.0k	82.0¢
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$900	90.0¢
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?	Politics	No	$897	85.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$890	89.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$860	86.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$780	78.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$748	74.0¢
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$720	89.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$693	75.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$678	27.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in November?	Other	No	$670	66.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$639	58.1¢
Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m?	Culture	No	$632	63.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$630	63.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$593	79.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$558	73.7¢

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$9.9k @ 66.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 79.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$2.2k @ 54.7¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
No$1.7k @ 76.9¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$1.6k @ 51.1¢
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?Culture
No$1.5k @ 89.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.4k @ 72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 71.5¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?Culture
No$1.2k @ 83.7¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?Crypto
No$1.2k @ 80.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$1.2k @ 79.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 79.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$1.1k @ 55.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.0k @ 82.0¢
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$900 @ 90.0¢
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?Politics
No$897 @ 85.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$860 @ 86.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$780 @ 78.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$748 @ 74.0¢
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$720 @ 89.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Crypto
No$693 @ 75.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$678 @ 27.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in November?Other
No$670 @ 66.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$639 @ 58.1¢
Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m?Culture
No$632 @ 63.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$630 @ 63.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$593 @ 79.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$558 @ 73.7¢