0x04b3…1b7e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04b3f873b003eba3774df1e5e47a370d27ee1b7e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

67% @ 63.2¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

2292

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (1032/1579)	+5%	1579
Politics	66% (280/422)	+11%	422
Science	68% (146/215)	+5%	215
Tech	54% (50/92)	-23%	92
Culture	77% (43/56)	+27%	56
Geopolitics	65% (30/46)	+22%	46
Economy	68% (13/19)	+39%	19
Sports	22% (2/9)	-70%	9
Business	50% (1/2)	-50%	2

Other1579 bets
Hit rate
65% (1032/1579)
ROI
+5%
Politics422 bets
Hit rate
66% (280/422)
ROI
+11%
Science215 bets
Hit rate
68% (146/215)
ROI
+5%
Tech92 bets
Hit rate
54% (50/92)
ROI
-23%
Culture56 bets
Hit rate
77% (43/56)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics46 bets
Hit rate
65% (30/46)
ROI
+22%
Economy19 bets
Hit rate
68% (13/19)
ROI
+39%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-70%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-50%

Track record

65% hit · 1597/2440

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	Yes	$10	26.9¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 9?	No	$12	86.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 9?	No	$20	89.0¢	Won
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 14?	Yes	$6	86.4¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 35°C on November 9?	No	$15	88.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	$15	27.0¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	$10	83.0¢	Won
Will Jakub Rychtecký be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	No	$10	65.0¢	Won
Will Jan Nadrchal be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Will Richard Vereš be the next Mayor of Ostrava?	Yes	$3	43.0¢	Won
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	No	$10	64.6¢	Won
Will Marek Zelenka be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	Yes	$10	58.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$41	56.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 3?	Yes	$20	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?	Yes	$61	56.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	No	$41	68.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 10?	No	$20	67.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?	No	$9	86.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?	No	$20	69.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?	Yes	$20	82.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 4?	No	$20	54.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22?	No	$20	71.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 3?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$10	89.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	Yes	$10	23.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 8?	No	$20	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?	Yes	$4	23.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 4?	No	$20	63.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	16.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?	Yes	$8	61.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 9?	No	$20	72.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 7?	Yes	$20	60.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 20?	No	$20	69.0¢	Won
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$10	84.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?	No	$20	84.9¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$10	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 23?	No	$20	83.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 7?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?	No	$20	78.9¢	Lost
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$6	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?	No	$20	70.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	$13	54.4¢	Won

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?Lost
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 9?Lost
No$12 @ 86.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 9?Won
No$20 @ 89.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 14?Lost
Yes$6 @ 86.4¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 35°C on November 9?Won
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 27.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Won
No$10 @ 83.0¢
Will Jakub Rychtecký be the next Mayor of Pardubice?Won
No$10 @ 65.0¢
Will Jan Nadrchal be the next Mayor of Pardubice?Lost
Yes$10 @ 61.0¢
Will Richard Vereš be the next Mayor of Ostrava?Won
Yes$3 @ 43.0¢
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Won
No$10 @ 64.6¢
Will Marek Zelenka be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Won
Yes$10 @ 58.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 56.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 3?Won
Yes$20 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Won
Yes$61 @ 56.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?Won
No$41 @ 68.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 10?Lost
No$20 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?Lost
No$9 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?Lost
No$20 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 4?Won
No$20 @ 54.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22?Won
No$20 @ 71.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 3?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 8?Won
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Won
Yes$4 @ 23.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 4?Won
No$20 @ 63.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 16.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?Won
Yes$8 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 9?Lost
No$20 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 7?Won
Yes$20 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 20?Won
No$20 @ 69.0¢
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?Lost
No$20 @ 84.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 23?Lost
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 7?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?Lost
No$20 @ 78.9¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?Won
No$20 @ 70.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Won
Yes$13 @ 54.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on November 5?	—	No	$20	87.4¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$20	85.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 6?	—	No	$20	80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 9?	Politics	No	$20	89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 6?	—	Yes	$20	84.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$15	26.0¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$15	15.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	49.3¢
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$15	89.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$15	90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 35°C on November 9?	Science	No	$15	88.0¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$15	78.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$15	71.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	61.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$15	56.0¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Tech	Yes	$15	41.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Politics	No	$15	37.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$15	27.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	24.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$14	15.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$14	31.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$14	62.2¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	No	$13	79.2¢
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$13	80.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$12	55.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Tech	Yes	$12	60.0¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$12	55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 9?	Science	No	$12	86.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$11	57.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$11	10.0¢

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on November 5?—
No$20 @ 87.4¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$20 @ 85.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 6?—
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 9?Politics
No$20 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 6?—
Yes$20 @ 84.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 26.0¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?Politics
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 49.3¢
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 89.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 35°C on November 9?Science
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$15 @ 71.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 61.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$15 @ 56.0¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?Tech
Yes$15 @ 41.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
No$15 @ 37.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 27.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 24.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 15.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$14 @ 31.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$14 @ 62.2¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
No$13 @ 79.2¢
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$13 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$12 @ 55.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?Tech
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$12 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 9?Science
No$12 @ 86.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$11 @ 10.0¢