0x04b3…1b7e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04b3f873b003eba3774df1e5e47a370d27ee1b7e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

64% @ 59.8¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

1186

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	66% (444/672)	+8%	672
Politics	58% (126/216)	+4%	216
Science	62% (86/138)	+10%	138
Geopolitics	65% (22/34)	+8%	34
Tech	53% (17/32)	-24%	32
Culture	75% (12/16)	-2%	16
Economy	78% (7/9)	+64%	9
Sports	13% (1/8)	-73%	8

Other672 bets
Hit rate
66% (444/672)
ROI
+8%
Politics216 bets
Hit rate
58% (126/216)
ROI
+4%
Science138 bets
Hit rate
62% (86/138)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics34 bets
Hit rate
65% (22/34)
ROI
+8%
Tech32 bets
Hit rate
53% (17/32)
ROI
-24%
Culture16 bets
Hit rate
75% (12/16)
ROI
-2%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+64%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-73%

Track record

64% hit · 715/1125

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?	No	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 24?	No	$20	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on September 24?	No	$20	87.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 24?	Yes	$6	60.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	$10	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	$10	86.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$41	56.9¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	No	$41	68.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 10?	No	$20	67.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22?	No	$20	71.4¢	Won
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$10	89.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?	No	$15	68.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?	Yes	$4	23.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	16.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 20?	No	$20	69.0¢	Won
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$10	84.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?	No	$20	84.9¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?	No	$15	61.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$16	24.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$6	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?	No	$20	70.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	$13	54.4¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$15	21.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?	Yes	$0	16.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 18?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 21?	No	$20	64.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$15	67.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?	Yes	$31	56.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?	No	$1	81.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?	Yes	$2	48.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?	Yes	$20	70.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	Yes	$21	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11?	Yes	$15	39.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14?	No	$20	67.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?	No	$20	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 5?	Yes	$20	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 30?	No	$20	78.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?	No	$20	79.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$15	56.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 30?	Yes	$12	35.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?	Yes	$15	47.2¢	Lost
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 4?	No	$20	74.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?	No	$20	72.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?	No	$20	64.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?	Yes	$27	36.6¢	Lost

Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?Won
No$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 24?Won
No$20 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on September 24?Won
No$20 @ 87.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 24?Won
Yes$6 @ 60.5¢
Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
No$10 @ 86.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 56.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?Won
No$41 @ 68.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 10?Lost
No$20 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 22?Won
No$20 @ 71.4¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?Won
No$15 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Won
Yes$4 @ 23.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 16.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 20?Won
No$20 @ 69.0¢
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?Lost
No$20 @ 84.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?Lost
No$15 @ 61.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$16 @ 24.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?Won
No$20 @ 70.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Won
Yes$13 @ 54.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$15 @ 21.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 18?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 21?Lost
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?Won
Yes$31 @ 56.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?Lost
No$1 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?Lost
Yes$20 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?Lost
Yes$21 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11?Lost
Yes$15 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14?Won
No$20 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?Won
No$20 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 5?Won
Yes$20 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 30?Won
No$20 @ 78.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Lost
No$20 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23?Won
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$15 @ 56.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$15 @ 47.2¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 4?Won
No$20 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?Won
No$20 @ 72.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?Won
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?Lost
Yes$27 @ 36.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$25	55.5¢
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?	Politics	No	$25	86.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$20	48.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	78.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$15	26.0¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$15	15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	80.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	49.3¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	89.9¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$15	84.0¢
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Politics	No	$15	77.0¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$15	78.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$15	71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	62.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	61.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	58.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	51.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	24.9¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	18.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	7.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	86.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$14	15.1¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$14	71.3¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$14	62.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	Yes	$13	60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$11	76.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$11	10.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$10	78.9¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$25 @ 55.5¢
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?Politics
No$25 @ 86.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 48.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 26.0¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?Politics
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 49.3¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 89.9¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$15 @ 84.0¢
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?Politics
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$15 @ 71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 62.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 61.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 58.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 51.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 24.9¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 18.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 7.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 86.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 15.1¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$14 @ 71.3¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$14 @ 62.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
Yes$13 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$11 @ 76.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$11 @ 10.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 78.9¢