0x0456…c88a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x04560ce4285463cfddd87a334618beb15399c88a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

74% @ 66.3¢

Brier

0.102

Resolved

238

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	68% (36/53)	+19%	53
Other	50% (11/22)	-15%	22
Geopolitics	100% (9/9)	+17%	9
Tech	50% (3/6)	-45%	6
Sports	50% (2/4)	-39%	4
Economy	100% (3/3)	+23%	3
Business	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Politics53 bets
Hit rate
68% (36/53)
ROI
+19%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
50% (11/22)
ROI
-15%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
100% (9/9)
ROI
+17%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-45%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-39%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+23%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

66% hit · 65/98

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$3	30.0¢	Lost
China vs. Czechia	China	$24	81.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$6	38.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$509	88.4¢	Won
Paris curfew by October 24?	No	$16	81.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	No	$24	79.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$79	5.2¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	$7	1.4¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$44	87.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$25	83.0¢	Won
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	No	$13	0.7¢	Lost
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	Yes	$9	28.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$12	88.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$11	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	$7	65.0¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$133	88.7¢	Won
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$95	85.9¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	Yes	$36	35.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$36	35.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?	No	$26	85.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	Yes	$26	88.2¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	$415	79.2¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$16	80.0¢	Lost
Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	No	$15	34.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?	No	$5	65.0¢	Won
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?	No	$4	73.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 6, 2026?	No	$38	87.0¢	Won
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	$15	18.1¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$4	12.6¢	Lost
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$359	71.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$71	89.0¢	Won
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	$54	0.6¢	Lost
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Yes	$230	76.7¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?	No	$334	85.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$18	73.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	83.0¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$3 @ 30.0¢
China vs. CzechiaWon
China$24 @ 81.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$6 @ 38.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$509 @ 88.4¢
Paris curfew by October 24?Lost
No$16 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?Won
No$24 @ 79.0¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$79 @ 5.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLost
No$7 @ 1.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$44 @ 87.9¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Won
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 83.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?Lost
No$13 @ 0.7¢
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 28.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 88.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$11 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Lost
Yes$7 @ 65.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$133 @ 88.7¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Lost
No$3 @ 28.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$95 @ 85.9¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?Won
Yes$36 @ 35.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$36 @ 35.5¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?Won
No$26 @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 88.2¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Won
Yes$415 @ 79.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?Won
No$15 @ 34.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$9 @ 0.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?Won
No$5 @ 65.0¢
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 6, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 87.0¢
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?Lost
No$15 @ 18.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.6¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Won
Yes$359 @ 71.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$71 @ 89.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Lost
No$54 @ 0.6¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Won
Yes$230 @ 76.7¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Won
No$334 @ 85.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$18 @ 73.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.1k	81.1¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9.4k	81.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$7.8k	79.6¢
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.2k	87.3¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	87.3¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	89.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	69.9¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.0k	95.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	79.7¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	19.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$741	51.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$736	78.8¢
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?	Business	Yes	$624	78.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$619	22.5¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$416	93.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$416	93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$402	94.5¢
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$317	5.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$258	89.1¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	Politics	No	$194	92.3¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$188	94.2¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$188	73.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Other	No	$186	93.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$180	90.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Business	Yes	$177	88.5¢
Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ?	Tech	Yes	$177	93.0¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?	Tech	No	$156	92.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Business	Yes	$145	72.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$144	96.2¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$137	80.8¢

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$11.1k @ 81.1¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$9.4k @ 81.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?Politics
Yes$7.8k @ 79.6¢
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Politics
No$5.2k @ 87.3¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 87.3¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 89.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 69.9¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.0k @ 95.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 79.7¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 19.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$741 @ 51.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
No$736 @ 78.8¢
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?Business
Yes$624 @ 78.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$619 @ 22.5¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$416 @ 93.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$416 @ 93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$402 @ 94.5¢
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$317 @ 5.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$258 @ 89.1¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?Politics
No$194 @ 92.3¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$188 @ 94.2¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$188 @ 73.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Other
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$180 @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Business
Yes$177 @ 88.5¢
Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ?Tech
Yes$177 @ 93.0¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?Tech
No$156 @ 92.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?Business
Yes$145 @ 72.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$144 @ 96.2¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$137 @ 80.8¢