← Smart money
0x042e…e021
SharpEdge
+21.1pp
ROI
+21%
Win rate
68% @ 46.5¢
Brier
0.168
Resolved
34
Avg size
$152
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 60% (3/5) | +51% | 5 |
| Other | 50% (2/4) | +20% | 4 |
| Sports | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +25% | 1 |
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +51%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +20%
- Sports3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +25%
Track record
43% hit · 6/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? | Yes | $589 | 81.5¢ | Won |
| Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? | Yes | $430 | 25.0¢ | Lost |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | $155 | 16.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | Yes | $33 | 32.0¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | $641 | 80.1¢ | Won |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | $315 | 78.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $206 | 1.5¢ | Lost |
| Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch | No | $589 | 67.2¢ | Won |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | $98 | 24.0¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | $717 | 47.0¢ | Won |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | $372 | 78.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? | Yes | $884 | 47.6¢ | Won |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | No | $120 | 40.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | $9 | 4.2¢ | Lost |
- Yes$589 @ 81.5¢
- Yes$430 @ 25.0¢
- Yes$155 @ 16.9¢
- Yes$33 @ 32.0¢
- No$641 @ 80.1¢
- No$315 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$206 @ 1.5¢
- No$589 @ 67.2¢
- Yes$98 @ 24.0¢
- No$717 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$372 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$884 @ 47.6¢
- No$120 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 4.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.5k | 96.4¢ |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $1.5k | 97.4¢ |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $457 | 82.0¢ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Tech | No | $281 | 62.4¢ |
| Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Crypto | No | $20 | 69.0¢ |
- No$1.5k @ 96.4¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 97.4¢
- No$457 @ 82.0¢
- No$281 @ 62.4¢
- No$20 @ 69.0¢