0x037b…a36f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x037b1f854b0cd92dab0decc174a12e906d5da36f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.0pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

27% @ 19.7¢

Brier

0.128

Resolved

176

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	28% (5/18)	+65%	18
Geopolitics	13% (2/16)	-32%	16
Other	43% (6/14)	-16%	14
Culture	50% (5/10)	+35%	10
Economy	78% (7/9)	+32%	9
Politics	25% (1/4)	+80%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	-31%	4
Sports	50% (1/2)	+92%	2

Tech18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
+65%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/16)
ROI
-32%
Other14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-16%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+35%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+32%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+80%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-31%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+92%

Track record

38% hit · 29/77

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?	No	$30	30.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	$36	35.8¢	Won
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	No	$5	5.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	No	$15	18.5¢	Won
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in October?	Yes	$52	53.4¢	Won
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.25B by October 31?	Yes	$41	53.6¢	Won
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.39T?	No	$111	74.3¢	Won
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.36T?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Won
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.40T?	No	$49	81.7¢	Won
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.38T?	Yes	$35	29.0¢	Lost
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.37T?	Yes	$93	58.2¢	Lost
Will Honeywell Technologies (HON) Q3 Building Automation sales be above $2.05B?	Yes	$35	36.0¢	Lost
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.5B?	No	$24	28.5¢	Lost
Will Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 total revenue be above $8.1B?	Yes	$53	65.7¢	Won
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?	No	$43	47.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver 550000 or more vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?	Yes	$33	55.0¢	Won
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on September 25?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Lost
Will “Nobody's Girl” by Tate McRae win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$52	85.3¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	$79	78.2¢	Won
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
Will “Dance No More” by Harry Styles win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$24	34.0¢	Lost
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Yes	$16	86.0¢	Won
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$16	26.0¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0062 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$116	86.5¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October?	Yes	$55	55.4¢	Won
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$18	48.0¢	Lost
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$141	37.6¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver less than 375000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $550B by September 30?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on September 25?	Yes	$36	35.0¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?	Yes	$80	79.0¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?	Yes	$22	29.0¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?	Yes	$16	41.0¢	Won
Democratic Senate odds <60% on September 25?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost

Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 30.1¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$36 @ 35.8¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$5 @ 5.1¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$15 @ 18.5¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in October?Won
Yes$52 @ 53.4¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.25B by October 31?Won
Yes$41 @ 53.6¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.39T?Won
No$111 @ 74.3¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.36T?Won
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.40T?Won
No$49 @ 81.7¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.38T?Lost
Yes$35 @ 29.0¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q3 total assets under management be above $1.37T?Lost
Yes$93 @ 58.2¢
Will Honeywell Technologies (HON) Q3 Building Automation sales be above $2.05B?Lost
Yes$35 @ 36.0¢
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.5B?Lost
No$24 @ 28.5¢
Will Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 total revenue be above $8.1B?Won
Yes$53 @ 65.7¢
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?Lost
No$43 @ 47.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Tesla deliver 550000 or more vehicles in Q3 2026Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?Won
Yes$33 @ 55.0¢
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on September 25?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will “Nobody's Girl” by Tate McRae win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
No$52 @ 85.3¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Won
Yes$79 @ 78.2¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
Will “Dance No More” by Harry Styles win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$24 @ 34.0¢
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Won
Yes$16 @ 86.0¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$16 @ 26.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0062 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$116 @ 86.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October?Won
Yes$55 @ 55.4¢
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
No$18 @ 48.0¢
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
Yes$141 @ 37.6¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 375000 vehicles in Q3 2026Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $550B by September 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q3 2026Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on September 25?Lost
Yes$36 @ 35.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?Won
Yes$80 @ 79.0¢
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Won
Yes$22 @ 29.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?Won
Yes$16 @ 41.0¢
Democratic Senate odds <60% on September 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	Economy	No	$494	88.2¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?	Other	No	$240	61.5¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	Economy	No	$186	84.4¢
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31?	Economy	No	$179	89.4¢
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?	Economy	No	$172	86.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% before 2027?	Economy	No	$171	85.5¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$162	81.0¢
Will Corning (GLW) Q3 Optical Communications sales be above $2.4B?	Other	No	$156	81.3¢
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	Economy	No	$141	90.3¢
Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$135	82.3¢
Will ISM Services PMI be at least 59.0 in October?	Economy	No	$120	90.2¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$116	83.7¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$111	75.9¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	Economy	No	$107	88.8¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?	Economy	No	$99	93.2¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	Economy	Yes	$89	27.9¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$86	69.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$85	56.0¢
Will Corning (GLW) Q3 Optical Communications sales be above $2.3B?	Other	No	$85	79.3¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?	Economy	No	$82	90.0¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$82	75.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$80	40.2¢
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Tech	Yes	$80	48.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	No	$75	75.0¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Economy	Yes	$74	23.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?	Other	Yes	$67	67.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$65	81.5¢
Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$65	65.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$63	63.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Economy	No	$60	59.8¢

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?Economy
No$494 @ 88.2¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?Other
No$240 @ 61.5¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?Economy
No$186 @ 84.4¢
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31?Economy
No$179 @ 89.4¢
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?Economy
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% before 2027?Economy
No$171 @ 85.5¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Will Corning (GLW) Q3 Optical Communications sales be above $2.4B?Other
No$156 @ 81.3¢
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?Economy
No$141 @ 90.3¢
Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$135 @ 82.3¢
Will ISM Services PMI be at least 59.0 in October?Economy
No$120 @ 90.2¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$116 @ 83.7¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$111 @ 75.9¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?Economy
No$107 @ 88.8¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?Economy
No$99 @ 93.2¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?Economy
Yes$89 @ 27.9¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?Economy
Yes$86 @ 69.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?Tech
Yes$85 @ 56.0¢
Will Corning (GLW) Q3 Optical Communications sales be above $2.3B?Other
No$85 @ 79.3¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?Economy
No$82 @ 90.0¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$82 @ 75.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$80 @ 40.2¢
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?Tech
Yes$80 @ 48.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?Economy
Yes$74 @ 23.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?Other
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$65 @ 81.5¢
Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$65 @ 65.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?Economy
Yes$63 @ 63.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Economy
No$60 @ 59.8¢