0x02f1…013e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x02f1899c92bfded18542b8b815ae4ca1425d013e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

61% @ 50.5¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

265

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (4/12)	-11%	12
Economy	50% (4/8)	+17%	8
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+376%	1

Other12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-11%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+17%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+376%

Track record

41% hit · 9/22

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$282	38.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$587	65.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$115	18.0¢	Lost
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$366	71.8¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	$105	18.1¢	Lost
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	$5	66.0¢	Won
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$5	1.9¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$68	11.6¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	74.7¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$5	42.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$513	69.2¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$145	19.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	$116	26.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$363	81.6¢	Won
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?	Yes	$155	56.4¢	Lost
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	$405	81.0¢	Lost
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$5	30.0¢	Lost

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$282 @ 38.5¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$587 @ 65.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$115 @ 18.0¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$366 @ 71.8¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 18.1¢
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?Won
Yes$5 @ 66.0¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.9¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$68 @ 11.6¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 74.7¢
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 42.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
No$513 @ 69.2¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
Yes$145 @ 19.2¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
No$116 @ 26.6¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Won
Yes$363 @ 81.6¢
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?Lost
Yes$155 @ 56.4¢
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?Lost
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?Won
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$5 @ 30.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$24	96.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$21	29.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	33.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$5	97.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	30.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	Yes	$1	1.1¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$0	2.2¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$24 @ 96.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 29.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 33.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$5 @ 97.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 30.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$0 @ 2.2¢