0x0262…a9d2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0262c1d06bb33ac08f00bede1856269d162ea9d2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.2pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

75% @ 61.9¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

1732

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (71/109)	-16%	109
Politics	70% (57/81)	+38%	81
Tech	57% (4/7)	+5%	7
Sports	20% (1/5)	-53%	5
Crypto	75% (3/4)	-35%	4
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+37%	3
Culture	67% (2/3)	-44%	3

Other109 bets
Hit rate
65% (71/109)
ROI
-16%
Politics81 bets
Hit rate
70% (57/81)
ROI
+38%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+5%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-53%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-35%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+37%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-44%

Track record

67% hit · 141/212

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	$15	86.6¢	Won
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$17	86.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$8	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$121	75.7¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$45	75.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	78.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	20.4¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$168	84.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$157	67.7¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$454	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$138	40.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$168	85.3¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$349	71.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$23	56.7¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	No	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	$324	85.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$60	49.8¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$42	83.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$1.0k	42.6¢	Won
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	No	$57	87.8¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	No	$39	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$13	77.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$270	84.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$52	87.1¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$802	77.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$162	83.3¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	$31	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	No	$430	53.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	Yes	$12	54.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	$28	70.8¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$16	41.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$23	75.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$27	89.5¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	No	$470	76.5¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	$13	53.8¢	Lost
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?	No	$423	75.8¢	Won
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	$35	73.0¢	Won
US bank failure by June 30?	No	$160	73.9¢	Lost
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	$1	58.2¢	Won

Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 86.6¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 86.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$8 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$121 @ 75.7¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$45 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 78.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 20.4¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 13.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$168 @ 84.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$157 @ 67.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$454 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$138 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$168 @ 85.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$349 @ 71.7¢
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$23 @ 56.7¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Won
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?Won
No$324 @ 85.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$60 @ 49.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$42 @ 83.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$1.0k @ 42.6¢
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Won
No$57 @ 87.8¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Lost
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$13 @ 77.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$270 @ 84.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$52 @ 87.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$802 @ 77.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$162 @ 83.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
No$31 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?Won
No$430 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?Lost
Yes$12 @ 54.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 4.0¢
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 70.8¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$16 @ 41.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 75.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$27 @ 89.5¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Won
No$470 @ 76.5¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 53.8¢
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?Won
No$423 @ 75.8¢
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 73.0¢
US bank failure by June 30?Lost
No$160 @ 73.9¢
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 58.2¢

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