0x0262…a9d2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0262c1d06bb33ac08f00bede1856269d162ea9d2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

74% @ 61.7¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

1649

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (71/159)	-44%	159
Politics	65% (69/106)	+28%	106
Crypto	60% (6/10)	-34%	10
Tech	63% (5/8)	+5%	8
Sports	17% (1/6)	-83%	6
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+35%	3
Culture	67% (2/3)	-44%	3
Business	100% (3/3)	+8%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other159 bets
Hit rate
45% (71/159)
ROI
-44%
Politics106 bets
Hit rate
65% (69/106)
ROI
+28%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
-34%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+5%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-83%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+35%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-44%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+8%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 160/299

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?	No	$9	43.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	$3	26.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $90 in August?	No	$72	89.6¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	$15	74.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $100 in August?	No	$10	98.9¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$2	35.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$180	76.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$44	75.7¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	$22	91.9¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	No	$601	41.4¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?	No	$7	69.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	No	$57	12.2¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22?	No	$6	33.0¢	Lost
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$8	14.0¢	Lost
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	$78	46.2¢	Lost
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	No	$73	66.8¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	$37	91.2¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	$62	41.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?	No	$9	19.0¢	Lost
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	$172	42.2¢	Lost
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	$958	67.2¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	No	$34	95.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "My Father" or "My Mother" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	$266	59.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	No	$28	49.6¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$143	92.6¢	Lost
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	$50	29.2¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	$703	29.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	5.1¢	Lost
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$3	1.1¢	Lost
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?	No	$23	38.5¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?	No	$196	75.8¢	Lost
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$10	95.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	$10	96.0¢	Lost
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	No	$3	78.0¢	Lost
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$12	39.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?	No	$8	61.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$20	20.1¢	Lost
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?	No	$5	45.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	No	$102	45.5¢	Lost
Clavicular charged again by June 30?	No	$43	77.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?	No	$297	71.2¢	Lost
Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$25	13.4¢	Lost
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$47	13.2¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?	No	$45	86.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week?	Yes	$4	42.0¢	Lost

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Solana reach $90 in August?Lost
No$72 @ 89.6¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 74.0¢
Will Solana reach $100 in August?Lost
No$10 @ 98.9¢
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 35.0¢
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$180 @ 76.0¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 75.7¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 91.9¢
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Lost
No$601 @ 41.4¢
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?Lost
No$7 @ 69.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?Lost
No$57 @ 12.2¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22?Lost
No$6 @ 33.0¢
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 14.0¢
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
No$78 @ 46.2¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$73 @ 66.8¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 91.2¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
No$62 @ 41.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?Lost
No$9 @ 19.0¢
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
No$172 @ 42.2¢
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Lost
No$958 @ 67.2¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?Lost
No$34 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump say "My Father" or "My Mother" this week? (April 27 - May 3)Lost
No$266 @ 59.9¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?Lost
No$28 @ 49.6¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$143 @ 92.6¢
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?Lost
Yes$50 @ 29.2¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?Lost
No$703 @ 29.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 5.1¢
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.1¢
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 38.5¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Lost
No$196 @ 75.8¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 95.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 96.0¢
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Lost
No$3 @ 78.0¢
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 39.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 61.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.1¢
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Lost
No$102 @ 45.5¢
Clavicular charged again by June 30?Lost
No$43 @ 77.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$297 @ 71.2¢
Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$25 @ 13.4¢
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$47 @ 13.2¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Lost
No$45 @ 86.3¢
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week?Lost
Yes$4 @ 42.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	—	No	$958	67.2¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Politics	No	$703	29.6¢
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Politics	No	$601	41.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$393	32.6¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	—	Yes	$361	93.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?	—	No	$297	71.2¢
Will Trump say "My Father" or "My Mother" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	—	No	$266	59.9¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Politics	No	$254	13.3¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$244	73.4¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?	—	No	$204	81.2¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?	—	No	$196	75.8¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	—	Yes	$180	76.0¢
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	—	No	$172	42.2¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	—	No	$143	92.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	—	No	$102	45.5¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$96	80.2¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	—	No	$81	70.5¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$81	46.2¢
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?	—	Yes	$80	38.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	—	No	$79	78.5¢
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	—	No	$78	46.2¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Sports	No	$73	66.8¢
Will Solana reach $90 in August?	—	No	$72	89.6¢
US bank failure by June 30?	—	No	$66	73.1¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$62	41.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	Politics	No	$57	12.2¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?	—	No	$52	68.2¢
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	—	Yes	$50	29.2¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$50	6.6¢
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	—	Yes	$47	13.2¢

Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?—
No$958 @ 67.2¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?Politics
No$703 @ 29.6¢
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Politics
No$601 @ 41.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Crypto
No$393 @ 32.6¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?—
Yes$361 @ 93.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?—
No$297 @ 71.2¢
Will Trump say "My Father" or "My Mother" this week? (April 27 - May 3)—
No$266 @ 59.9¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Politics
No$254 @ 13.3¢
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?Crypto
Yes$244 @ 73.4¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?—
No$204 @ 81.2¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?—
No$196 @ 75.8¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?—
Yes$180 @ 76.0¢
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?—
No$172 @ 42.2¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?—
No$143 @ 92.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?—
No$102 @ 45.5¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$96 @ 80.2¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?—
No$81 @ 70.5¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$81 @ 46.2¢
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?—
Yes$80 @ 38.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?—
No$79 @ 78.5¢
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?—
No$78 @ 46.2¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreSports
No$73 @ 66.8¢
Will Solana reach $90 in August?—
No$72 @ 89.6¢
US bank failure by June 30?—
No$66 @ 73.1¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$62 @ 41.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?Politics
No$57 @ 12.2¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?—
No$52 @ 68.2¢
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?—
Yes$50 @ 29.2¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$50 @ 6.6¢
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?—
Yes$47 @ 13.2¢