0x01ad…90f6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x01adea599a865a092b51ee4573581a75fc1390f6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

50% @ 42.7¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

1236

Avg size

$64

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (57/134)	+25%	134
Politics	48% (43/90)	+4%	90
Sports	47% (7/15)	+62%	15
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+98%	4
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+195%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other134 bets
Hit rate
43% (57/134)
ROI
+25%
Politics90 bets
Hit rate
48% (43/90)
ROI
+4%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
47% (7/15)
ROI
+62%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+98%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+195%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

46% hit · 114/249

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	$855	57.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	FURIA	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Iron Wing	$412	41.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	28.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	$883	28.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$88	93.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	$206	38.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	$11	38.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$225	63.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$1.1k	36.0¢	Lost
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	$503	67.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$26	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$25	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$156	63.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$145	36.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$143	63.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	$218	36.1¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$864	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$47	63.0¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	$537	96.4¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	$16	72.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$32	22.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?	Yes	$14	9.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	$217	20.6¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$523	70.6¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	$37	83.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$48	39.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$54	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$78	59.9¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	$133	34.0¢	Lost
Wild vs. Panthers	Panthers	$129	43.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$192	86.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$72	2.2¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$19	17.0¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	No	$18	1.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$801	63.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	25.2¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$1.2k	56.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$561	32.8¢	Lost
Red Wings vs. Flyers	Flyers	$137	50.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$7	64.0¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2.4k	74.4¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$103	23.0¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Flames	Flames	$180	60.0¢	Won
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks	Sharks	$165	55.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$156	29.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$146	29.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$107	28.5¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$114	44.2¢	Won

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsLost
TEAM VISION$855 @ 57.0¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsLost
FURIA$0 @ 0.1¢
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Iron Wing$412 @ 41.2¢
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 28.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
Yes$883 @ 28.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$88 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
No$206 @ 38.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 38.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
No$225 @ 63.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
No$1.1k @ 36.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Won
No$503 @ 67.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 29.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 29.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$156 @ 63.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$145 @ 36.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$143 @ 63.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
No$218 @ 36.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$864 @ 36.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 63.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
No$537 @ 96.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
No$16 @ 72.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 22.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Lost
Yes$14 @ 9.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
No$217 @ 20.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$523 @ 70.6¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Won
No$37 @ 83.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$48 @ 39.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$54 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$78 @ 59.9¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$133 @ 34.0¢
Wild vs. PanthersLost
Panthers$129 @ 43.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$192 @ 86.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$72 @ 2.2¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$19 @ 17.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
No$18 @ 1.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$801 @ 63.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 25.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$1.2k @ 56.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$561 @ 32.8¢
Red Wings vs. FlyersLost
Flyers$137 @ 50.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$7 @ 64.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 74.4¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$103 @ 23.0¢
Canucks vs. FlamesWon
Flames$180 @ 60.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. SharksWon
Sharks$165 @ 55.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$156 @ 29.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$146 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 28.5¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$114 @ 44.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance	—	Mexico	$1.4k	48.6¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	—	Team Liquid	$894	39.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$864	36.0¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	—	TEAM VISION	$855	57.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	—	No	$492	55.9¢
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	—	Iron Wing	$412	41.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$401	60.1¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	—	Yes	$387	31.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$288	39.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$239	1.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	Yes	$156	25.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	—	No	$143	29.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Sports	No	$130	34.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$115	72.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Tech	No	$113	14.0¢
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$111	17.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	—	No	$89	27.2¢
Chargers vs. Bills	Sports	Chargers	$73	26.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$72	69.0¢
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	No	$63	2.9¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Sports	Yes	$60	65.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	—	Yes	$47	39.1¢
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	Politics	No	$38	14.8¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	—	No	$31	11.0¢
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)	—	Thunder	$29	19.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	Politics	No	$26	5.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Politics	No	$25	4.8¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	Yes	$24	26.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$22	0.2¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	—	Yes	$19	17.0¢

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance—
Mexico$1.4k @ 48.6¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs—
Team Liquid$894 @ 39.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$864 @ 36.0¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs—
TEAM VISION$855 @ 57.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?—
No$492 @ 55.9¢
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs—
Iron Wing$412 @ 41.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$401 @ 60.1¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?—
Yes$387 @ 31.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$288 @ 39.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$239 @ 1.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
Yes$156 @ 25.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?—
No$143 @ 29.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Sports
No$130 @ 34.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$115 @ 72.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Tech
No$113 @ 14.0¢
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$111 @ 17.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?—
No$89 @ 27.2¢
Chargers vs. BillsSports
Chargers$73 @ 26.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$72 @ 69.0¢
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
No$63 @ 2.9¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Sports
Yes$60 @ 65.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?—
Yes$47 @ 39.1¢
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Politics
No$38 @ 14.8¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?—
No$31 @ 11.0¢
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)—
Thunder$29 @ 19.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Politics
No$26 @ 5.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Politics
No$25 @ 4.8¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
Yes$24 @ 26.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$22 @ 0.2¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?—
Yes$19 @ 17.0¢