0x0159…4f56

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x015923d3bdc6a6fa5917718d91147447e5604f56
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

37% @ 29.4¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

253

Avg size

$53

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (23/41)	+14%	41
Crypto	100% (5/5)	+161%	5
Politics	100% (2/2)	+30%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
56% (23/41)
ROI
+14%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+161%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+30%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

63% hit · 31/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	$0	3.3¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	No	$295	76.4¢	Won
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$13	0.7¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$413	67.9¢	Lost
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	$2	29.0¢	Won
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$235	79.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$2.0k	88.4¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$167	68.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$67	67.0¢	Lost
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$179	59.6¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$82	70.7¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$141	14.9¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	Yes	$98	67.0¢	Won
Iran strike on US military by February 28?	Yes	$20	20.1¢	Won
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$156	58.5¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$2.5k	87.2¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?	No	$1.1k	78.7¢	Lost
Will Trove launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	11.0¢	Lost
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	No	$46	52.3¢	Won
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?	Yes	$36	1.3¢	Lost
Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	$7	7.4¢	Lost
Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	$195	56.0¢	Lost
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	$8	18.9¢	Won
Will Spark launch a token by March 31?	No	$78	84.0¢	Won
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	$37	27.6¢	Lost
Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025?	No	$79	77.9¢	Won
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25?	Yes	$124	89.8¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?	Yes	$39	1.4¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?	Yes	$100	1.9¢	Lost
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?	No	$55	14.7¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$67	86.9¢	Won
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$110	45.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?	No	$284	88.0¢	Won
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$85	22.0¢	Lost
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$49	53.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$268	85.9¢	Won
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026?	No	$54	8.6¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	$44	80.0¢	Won
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?	No	$1.6k	55.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition	Yes	$400	59.8¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	No	$265	84.0¢	Won
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	$64	14.9¢	Won
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?	No	$204	71.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition	Yes	$372	73.6¢	Won
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?	No	$1.1k	83.7¢	Won
Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	$9	9.1¢	Lost

Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 3.3¢
No airdrop in 2025?Won
No$295 @ 76.4¢
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.7¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
No$413 @ 67.9¢
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$235 @ 79.0¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 88.4¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$167 @ 68.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$179 @ 59.6¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$82 @ 70.7¢
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$141 @ 14.9¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 67.0¢
Iran strike on US military by February 28?Won
Yes$20 @ 20.1¢
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Won
No$156 @ 58.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$2.5k @ 87.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$1.1k @ 78.7¢
Will Trove launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 11.0¢
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?Won
No$46 @ 52.3¢
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?Lost
Yes$36 @ 1.3¢
Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 7.4¢
Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$195 @ 56.0¢
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?Won
No$8 @ 18.9¢
Will Spark launch a token by March 31?Won
No$78 @ 84.0¢
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 27.6¢
Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025?Won
No$79 @ 77.9¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Won
Yes$124 @ 89.8¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Won
Yes$39 @ 1.4¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.9¢
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?Won
No$55 @ 14.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$67 @ 86.9¢
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$110 @ 45.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?Won
No$284 @ 88.0¢
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
No$85 @ 22.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 53.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$268 @ 85.9¢
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026?Lost
No$54 @ 8.6¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Won
No$44 @ 80.0¢
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?Lost
No$1.6k @ 55.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops EditionWon
Yes$400 @ 59.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Won
No$265 @ 84.0¢
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?Won
No$64 @ 14.9¢
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?Lost
No$204 @ 71.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out EditionWon
Yes$372 @ 73.6¢
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 83.7¢
Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 9.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?	Crypto	No	$47	58.0¢
Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$46	51.7¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$35	30.6¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$27	30.6¢
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$17	58.0¢

Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?Crypto
No$47 @ 58.0¢
Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$46 @ 51.7¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$35 @ 30.6¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$27 @ 30.6¢
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$17 @ 58.0¢