0x0049…6034

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x00497937c03436c8b1c033123d282688c7976034
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

58% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

846

Avg size

$56

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (199/339)	+10%	339
Tech	83% (10/12)	+25%	12
Politics	80% (4/5)	+17%	5
Sports	33% (1/3)	-31%	3
Economy	67% (2/3)	+30%	3
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+86%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+13%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other339 bets
Hit rate
59% (199/339)
ROI
+10%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
83% (10/12)
ROI
+25%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+17%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-31%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+30%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+86%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

59% hit · 218/367

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?	No	$201	67.0¢	Won
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$25	50.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$136	68.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?	Yes	$100	51.0¢	Won
Will Chris Christie drop out of presidential race in 2023?	Yes	$20	16.0¢	Lost
Will Hillary Clinton say "Woman president" at DNC speech?	Yes	$14	52.0¢	Lost
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$38	25.0¢	Won
Zircuit airdrop in 2024?	No	$11	10.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$182	70.3¢	Lost
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	No	$1	71.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?	No	$21	70.0¢	Won
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?	Yes	$14	29.0¢	Won
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$269	89.5¢	Won
Texans vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	$40	81.0¢	Won
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$102	51.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$108	54.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$323	79.9¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$106	53.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	$0	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gold" at CPAC conference on Saturday?	No	$16	32.0¢	Lost
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?	No	$23	23.0¢	Lost
Trump posts 40-49 times on X?	Yes	$4	22.0¢	Lost
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?	Yes	$158	83.0¢	Won
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?	Yes	$43	86.9¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$28	14.0¢	Lost
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Barron" during his Bitcoin Conference speech?	Yes	$8	26.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?	Yes	$336	84.0¢	Won
Chargers vs. Texans	Chargers	$12	60.0¢	Lost
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	No	$213	71.0¢	Won
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?	Yes	$48	80.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?	No	$1.5k	73.8¢	Won
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Won
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tesla" during NBC interview?	Yes	$9	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Elon say "China" 10 or more times during their Feb 18 interview?	No	$37	75.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	No	$90	89.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX's Starship lift 500m from pad by Nov 19?	Yes	$34	78.1¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	Yes	$237	80.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?	No	$29	58.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during NBC interview?	Yes	$20	28.9¢	Lost
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?	Yes	$336	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?	No	$436	87.1¢	Won

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?Won
No$201 @ 67.0¢
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 50.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 51.0¢
Will Chris Christie drop out of presidential race in 2023?Lost
Yes$20 @ 16.0¢
Will Hillary Clinton say "Woman president" at DNC speech?Lost
Yes$14 @ 52.0¢
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Won
Yes$38 @ 25.0¢
Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Lost
No$11 @ 10.5¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$182 @ 70.3¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Won
No$21 @ 70.0¢
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?Won
Yes$14 @ 29.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$269 @ 89.5¢
Texans vs. ChiefsWon
Chiefs$40 @ 81.0¢
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$102 @ 51.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$108 @ 54.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$323 @ 79.9¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$106 @ 53.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Won
Yes$0 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Gold" at CPAC conference on Saturday?Lost
No$16 @ 32.0¢
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?Lost
No$23 @ 23.0¢
Trump posts 40-49 times on X?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Won
Yes$158 @ 83.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?Won
Yes$43 @ 86.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 14.0¢
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Barron" during his Bitcoin Conference speech?Lost
Yes$8 @ 26.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Won
Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
Chargers vs. TexansLost
Chargers$12 @ 60.0¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Won
No$213 @ 71.0¢
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Won
Yes$48 @ 80.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 73.8¢
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?Won
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump say "Tesla" during NBC interview?Lost
Yes$9 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump and Elon say "China" 10 or more times during their Feb 18 interview?Won
No$37 @ 75.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Won
No$90 @ 89.9¢
Will SpaceX's Starship lift 500m from pad by Nov 19?Won
Yes$34 @ 78.1¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Lost
Yes$237 @ 80.0¢
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?Lost
No$29 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during NBC interview?Lost
Yes$20 @ 28.9¢
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?Won
Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?Won
No$436 @ 87.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$7.0k	81.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.3k	86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.8k	92.9¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.5k	82.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.3k	90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.0k	89.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.9k	95.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	83.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	78.9¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$951	95.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$950	95.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$940	94.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$938	94.6¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$920	92.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$912	91.1¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$880	88.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$860	86.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$850	85.0¢
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.02 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$832	87.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$815	90.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$704	88.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Tech	No	$561	86.3¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$554	96.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$475	95.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$470	94.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $200 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$470	94.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$410	82.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$409	90.5¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$400	80.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$393	59.5¢

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$7.0k @ 81.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5.3k @ 86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.8k @ 92.9¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.5k @ 82.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.3k @ 90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.0k @ 89.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.9k @ 95.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 83.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.2k @ 78.9¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$951 @ 95.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$950 @ 95.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$938 @ 94.6¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$920 @ 92.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$912 @ 91.1¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$860 @ 86.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$850 @ 85.0¢
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.02 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$832 @ 87.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$815 @ 90.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$704 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech
No$561 @ 86.3¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$554 @ 96.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$475 @ 95.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech
Yes$470 @ 94.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $200 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$470 @ 94.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$409 @ 90.5¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$393 @ 59.5¢