0x002d…2561

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x002dcd37b0b8fa8db98236e599fe1b90d6272561
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.7pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

45% @ 40.3¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

4348

Avg size

$82

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (444/930)	+9%	930
Politics	43% (10/23)	+7%	23
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-1%	3

Other930 bets
Hit rate
48% (444/930)
ROI
+9%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
43% (10/23)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-1%

Track record

48% hit · 456/956

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	Yes	$89	8.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$375	77.1¢	Won
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	No	$8	65.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$9	11.0¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5	Over	$510	51.0¢	Won
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5	Under	$510	51.0¢	Lost
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5	Under	$536	49.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$214	32.9¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day 1?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$190	19.1¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$74	37.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$596	26.4¢	Lost
Will Sidemen's next video get between 6.0–7.0 million views on week 1?	Yes	$79	22.2¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?	No	$74	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	No	$149	76.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$78	62.0¢	Won
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)	Chicago Cubs	$3	36.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	Yes	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?	Yes	$1.1k	39.7¢	Lost
Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	$19	84.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	No	$2	4.9¢	Lost
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$2.1k	72.0¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	No	$282	89.4¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$172	34.8¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	$586	82.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $240 in October?	No	$69	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$286	28.6¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	No	$263	87.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "TikTok" during the Fox News interview on September 18?	Yes	$174	70.8¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$1.4k	53.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1.2k	34.9¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1?	Yes	$230	23.0¢	Lost
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$21	35.0¢	Lost
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	No	$112	85.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?	No	$12	16.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?	Yes	$1.9k	48.0¢	Won
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$94	13.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?	Yes	$124	45.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$497	81.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Won
Will Sidemen's next video get between 3.5–4.0 million views on day 1?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1?	Yes	$716	39.2¢	Won
Will PewDiePie’s next video get less than 1.5 million views on week 1?	No	$2	76.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$6	55.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$170	26.5¢	Lost
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$537	62.5¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 25+ times during his next video?	No	$242	70.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?	Yes	$53	35.0¢	Lost

Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
Yes$89 @ 8.5¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$375 @ 77.1¢
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?Won
No$8 @ 65.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$9 @ 11.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Won
Over$510 @ 51.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Lost
Under$510 @ 51.0¢
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5Won
Under$536 @ 49.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$214 @ 32.9¢
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day 1?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$190 @ 19.1¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$74 @ 37.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$596 @ 26.4¢
Will Sidemen's next video get between 6.0–7.0 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$79 @ 22.2¢
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?Lost
No$74 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
No$149 @ 76.5¢
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Won
No$78 @ 62.0¢
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Lost
Chicago Cubs$3 @ 36.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 7.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 39.7¢
Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Won
Yes$19 @ 84.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Lost
No$2 @ 4.9¢
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
No$2.1k @ 72.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Won
No$282 @ 89.4¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$172 @ 34.8¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Won
No$586 @ 82.0¢
Will Solana reach $240 in October?Won
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$286 @ 28.6¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Won
No$263 @ 87.8¢
Will Trump say "TikTok" during the Fox News interview on September 18?Won
Yes$174 @ 70.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$1.4k @ 53.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 34.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$230 @ 23.0¢
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$21 @ 35.0¢
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Won
No$112 @ 85.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?Lost
No$12 @ 16.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 48.0¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$94 @ 13.7¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Won
Yes$124 @ 45.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$497 @ 81.5¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?Won
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will Sidemen's next video get between 3.5–4.0 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$716 @ 39.2¢
Will PewDiePie’s next video get less than 1.5 million views on week 1?Won
No$2 @ 76.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$6 @ 55.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$170 @ 26.5¢
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$537 @ 62.5¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 25+ times during his next video?Won
No$242 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?Lost
Yes$53 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.2k	74.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	90.0¢
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?	Politics	No	$429	73.3¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?	Politics	No	$116	87.1¢

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.2k @ 74.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?Politics
No$429 @ 73.3¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?Politics
No$116 @ 87.1¢