0xfd2b…8e50

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

28% @ 23.0¢

Brier

0.116

Resolved

1393

Avg size

$504

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (12/25)	+210%	25
Politics	53% (9/17)	-56%	17
Sports	33% (2/6)	-4%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
48% (12/25)
ROI
+210%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
ROI
-56%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

47% hit · 23/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.3k	61.3¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	19.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$8.7k	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$189.7k	16.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$707	39.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$6.0k	16.9¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$24.0k	48.0¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$15.0k	6.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$6.5k	13.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$28.3k	22.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$19.9k	12.5¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	3.2¢	Lost
Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?	Yes	$60	82.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$38.1k	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.5k	3.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$9.5k	26.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$7.6k	6.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.1k	32.3¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$2.9k	32.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$20.7k	41.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$4.1k	4.1¢	Lost
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	No	$73	1.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	2.1¢	Lost
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$1.4k	11.0¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$6.0k	46.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5.2k	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	5.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	3.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	22.9¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$25.1k	27.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1.6k	19.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	45.0¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$838	74.9¢	Won
Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$10.2k	25.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22.4k	7.8¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Yes	$77	28.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$71.1k	26.4¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	$10.0k	10.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	74.7¢	Won
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	$70.0k	70.0¢	Won
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?	Yes	$127	16.0¢	Won
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	No	$15.7k	63.1¢	Won
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?	Yes	$646	88.5¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$22.0k	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$6.5k	15.6¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	No	$3.9k	14.4¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	11.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	5.0¢	Lost
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12.2k	3.0¢	Lost

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2.3k @ 61.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$8.7k @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$189.7k @ 16.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$707 @ 39.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$6.0k @ 16.9¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$24.0k @ 48.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$15.0k @ 6.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$6.5k @ 13.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$28.3k @ 22.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$19.9k @ 12.5¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.2¢
Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?Won
Yes$60 @ 82.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$38.1k @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 3.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$9.5k @ 26.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$7.6k @ 6.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$7.1k @ 32.3¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 32.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$20.7k @ 41.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 4.1¢
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?Lost
No$73 @ 1.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 2.1¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$1.4k @ 11.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$6.0k @ 46.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 5.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 3.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 22.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$25.1k @ 27.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 19.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 45.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$838 @ 74.9¢
Thunder vs. LakersLost
Lakers$10.2k @ 25.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$22.4k @ 7.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Lost
Yes$77 @ 28.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$71.1k @ 26.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$10.0k @ 10.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 74.7¢
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Max Holloway$70.0k @ 70.0¢
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Won
Yes$127 @ 16.0¢
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsWon
No$15.7k @ 63.1¢
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Won
Yes$646 @ 88.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$22.0k @ 11.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$6.5k @ 15.6¢
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Lost
No$3.9k @ 14.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 11.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 5.0¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12.2k @ 3.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$4.9k	92.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	24.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$923	36.6¢
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?	Politics	No	$137	85.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$8	19.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	53.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	12.7¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$4.9k @ 92.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 24.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$923 @ 36.6¢
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?Politics
No$137 @ 85.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$8 @ 19.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 12.7¢