0xf9b0…a817

Specialization by sphere

• Other90 bets

  Hit rate

  39% (35/90)

  ROI

  +79%

• Geopolitics25 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (10/25)

  ROI

  +18%

• Politics15 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (8/15)

  ROI

  -12%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$161 @ 64.4¢
• Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Won
  No$16 @ 78.0¢
• Will Abbas Araghchi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
• Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 0.4¢
• Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 20.6¢
• Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Lost
  No$1 @ 2.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
  Yes$9 @ 86.6¢
• Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 3.6¢
• Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$73 @ 3.4¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 1.1¢
• Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
  No$30 @ 2.4¢
• Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
  No$14 @ 70.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
• Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
  No$696 @ 80.9¢
• Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?Lost
  Yes$352 @ 62.0¢
• Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
  Yes$128 @ 51.8¢
• Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
• Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
  No$340 @ 85.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
• Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 9.7¢
• Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Lost
  No$72 @ 11.1¢
• Will DeepSeek V4 be released on or prior to April 24, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 0.9¢
• Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?Lost
  No$10 @ 0.1¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
  No$14 @ 84.1¢
• Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Won
  Yes$68 @ 89.0¢
• Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
  Yes$75 @ 33.1¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
  No$56 @ 0.3¢
• Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 23?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$2.6k @ 59.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$568 @ 27.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
  No$63 @ 63.0¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
• Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
• Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLost
  Portugal$31 @ 34.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
  No$28 @ 51.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
  No$41 @ 41.0¢
• Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
• Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 20.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Lost
  No$4 @ 43.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$127 @ 79.3¢
• Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
• Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 3.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$356 @ 76.8¢
• Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
  Yes$85 @ 1.0¢

Current positions

• Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Geopolitics
  No$387 @ 98.9¢
• Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$192 @ 94.7¢
• Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$115 @ 89.4¢
• Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$61 @ 91.8¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
• 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$41 @ 93.9¢
• Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Geopolitics
  Yes$41 @ 20.5¢
• Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Geopolitics
  No$34 @ 20.0¢
• Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$15 @ 58.8¢
• Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$14 @ 12.0¢
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 27?Geopolitics
  No$8 @ 38.0¢
• Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$0 @ 0.6¢