← Smart money
0xf96f…1f5c
ProfitableEdge
+58.9pp
ROI
+198%
Win rate
74% @ 15.2¢
Brier
0.548
Resolved
58
Avg size
$33
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 67% (2/3) | +0% | 3 |
| Other | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +601% | 3 |
- Sports3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +0%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +601%
Track record
44% hit · 4/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | $202 | 64.0¢ | Won |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Yes | $114 | 38.0¢ | Won |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? | No | $26 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $420 | 14.0¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $274 | 12.9¢ | Won |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? | Yes | $36 | 5.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $298 | 52.6¢ | Lost |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? | Yes | $256 | 63.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $299 | 0.3¢ | Lost |
- Yes$202 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$114 @ 38.0¢
- No$26 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$420 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$274 @ 12.9¢
- Yes$36 @ 5.1¢
- Yes$298 @ 52.6¢
- Yes$256 @ 63.9¢
- Yes$299 @ 0.3¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Economy | Yes | $1.3k | 24.1¢ |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $380 | 37.0¢ |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Tech | No | $300 | 23.8¢ |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance | — | Spain | $297 | 66.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | Tech | Yes | $200 | 27.7¢ |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Tech | Yes | $200 | 46.0¢ |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | No | $200 | 64.9¢ |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Tech | Anthropic | $186 | 68.0¢ |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $125 | 21.2¢ |
- Yes$1.3k @ 24.1¢
- Yes$380 @ 37.0¢
- No$300 @ 23.8¢
- Spain$297 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 27.7¢
- Yes$200 @ 46.0¢
- No$200 @ 64.9¢
- Anthropic$186 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$125 @ 21.2¢