0xf592…73ca

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf592459993cca65429ba2523f24c31289c0873ca
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-5.8pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

35% @ 41.0¢

Brier

0.125

Resolved

394

Avg size

$157

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	24% (23/97)	+8%	97
Sports	30% (9/30)	+6%	30
Politics	83% (5/6)	+49%	6
Crypto	25% (1/4)	-69%	4

Other97 bets
Hit rate
24% (23/97)
ROI
+8%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
30% (9/30)
ROI
+6%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+49%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-69%

Track record

28% hit · 38/137

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?	Yes	$2	11.3¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?	Yes	$430	17.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$5	15.8¢	Lost
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?	No	$6	58.0¢	Won
Linea airdrop in Q2 2025?	Yes	$100	53.2¢	Lost
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$12	21.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?	Yes	$77	7.7¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	14.5¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?	No	$3.9k	88.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?	Yes	$7.0k	73.2¢	Won
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	$10	9.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?	Yes	$4	38.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$15	22.6¢	Lost
Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024?	Yes	$30	60.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times August 29–September 5?	Yes	$68	3.4¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$19	23.3¢	Lost
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?	Yes	$39	3.9¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?	Yes	$180	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?	No	$69	12.8¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?	No	$78	78.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	No	$7	77.8¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?	No	$2.6k	80.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	$92	41.2¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?	Yes	$231	15.4¢	Lost
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	$33	83.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	$42	40.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	$385	87.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	5.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	Yes	$1	23.6¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$11	10.6¢	Lost
Will Base be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$10	18.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$176	76.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?	Yes	$160	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?	Yes	$3	29.9¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$8	15.3¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?	Yes	$180	9.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$5	15.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$2	15.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2	18.6¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.3¢
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Won
Yes$430 @ 17.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.8¢
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?Won
No$6 @ 58.0¢
Linea airdrop in Q2 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 53.2¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
Yes$12 @ 21.0¢
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?Lost
Yes$77 @ 7.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 14.5¢
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Lost
No$3.9k @ 88.0¢
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Won
Yes$7.0k @ 73.2¢
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 38.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$15 @ 22.6¢
Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024?Won
Yes$30 @ 60.0¢
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times August 29–September 5?Lost
Yes$68 @ 3.4¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.3¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?Lost
Yes$39 @ 3.9¢
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?Lost
Yes$180 @ 9.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?Lost
No$69 @ 12.8¢
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?Won
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 77.8¢
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?Won
No$2.6k @ 80.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Lost
Yes$92 @ 41.2¢
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?Lost
Yes$231 @ 15.4¢
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Won
Yes$33 @ 83.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Lost
No$42 @ 40.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Won
Yes$385 @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.6¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$11 @ 10.6¢
Will Base be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 18.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 76.0¢
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?Lost
Yes$160 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.9¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$8 @ 15.3¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$18 @ 18.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?Lost
Yes$180 @ 9.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$43	96.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$41	50.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$41	50.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$15	98.0¢

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?Crypto
No$43 @ 96.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$41 @ 50.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$41 @ 50.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 98.0¢