0xeb52…67cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xeb526f42dc37f1a86e7fe97019b1bfe1ac8c67cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

34% @ 27.6¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

1096

Avg size

$22

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (47/148)	+10%	148
Tech	25% (2/8)	-42%	8
Politics	50% (1/2)	-54%	2

Other148 bets
Hit rate
32% (47/148)
ROI
+10%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-42%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-54%

Track record

32% hit · 50/158

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$45	33.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$242	23.2¢	Lost
Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$43	6.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?	No	$502	83.6¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$16	41.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$76	11.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	$13	7.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?	Yes	$63	16.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 5?	Yes	$2.2k	35.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?	Yes	$9	3.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 4?	Yes	$9	1.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?	Yes	$21	4.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?	No	$26	87.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?	No	$230	82.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?	No	$133	88.7¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?	Yes	$6	4.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3?	Yes	$254	17.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	$5	3.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	No	$45	16.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	No	$15	76.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?	No	$245	84.4¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$209	87.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$211	32.5¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$258	86.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	No	$33	81.4¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	No	$1.3k	83.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$29	19.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?	Yes	$16	1.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?	No	$408	70.1¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	$60	40.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 4?	Yes	$13	2.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	$5	9.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?	Yes	$8	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$110	36.7¢	Won
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?	Yes	$124	13.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?	No	$13	81.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?	Yes	$7	4.7¢	Lost

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 33.9¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$242 @ 23.2¢
Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 6.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?Won
No$502 @ 83.6¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$16 @ 41.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 11.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Lost
Yes$13 @ 7.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?Lost
Yes$63 @ 16.2¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 5?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 35.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 4?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 4.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 87.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?Won
No$230 @ 82.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?Won
No$133 @ 88.7¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Won
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3?Lost
Yes$254 @ 17.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 16.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Won
No$15 @ 76.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?Won
No$245 @ 84.4¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$209 @ 87.2¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$211 @ 32.5¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$258 @ 86.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 81.4¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Won
No$1.3k @ 83.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 19.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 1.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Won
No$408 @ 70.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Won
No$60 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 4?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$110 @ 36.7¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?Lost
Yes$124 @ 13.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 1.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Won
No$13 @ 81.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$1.9k	79.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$881	58.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$722	56.4¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$667	91.9¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$486	48.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$477	50.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$352	13.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$279	89.7¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$262	36.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$197	26.3¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$148	86.8¢
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$133	41.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$113	85.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$111	82.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$85	57.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$81	90.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$56	10.2¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	Yes	$45	10.4¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$33	82.5¢
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$32	15.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$28	20.5¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$24	34.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$19	37.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$14	40.3¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$9	19.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$8	16.7¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	60.0¢
Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	4.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.4¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	2.0¢

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$1.9k @ 79.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$881 @ 58.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$722 @ 56.4¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$667 @ 91.9¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$486 @ 48.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$477 @ 50.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$352 @ 13.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$279 @ 89.7¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$262 @ 36.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$197 @ 26.3¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$148 @ 86.8¢
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$133 @ 41.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$113 @ 85.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$111 @ 82.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$85 @ 57.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$81 @ 90.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech
Yes$56 @ 10.2¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
Yes$45 @ 10.4¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$33 @ 82.5¢
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$32 @ 15.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$28 @ 20.5¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?Tech
Yes$24 @ 34.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$19 @ 37.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$14 @ 40.3¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$9 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech
Yes$8 @ 16.7¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 4.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.4¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢