0xe4b9…4d3a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe4b9359975e07a89fa8ada61d2848624c0da4d3a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+47%

Win rate

46% @ 34.8¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

134

Avg size

$111

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (13/29)	+25%	29
Politics	60% (15/25)	+46%	25
Sports	75% (3/4)	+151%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other29 bets
Hit rate
45% (13/29)
ROI
+25%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
60% (15/25)
ROI
+46%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+151%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 31/63

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31?	Yes	$436	73.4¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$52	34.1¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$17	14.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$103	19.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$472	74.5¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$26	15.2¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$424	16.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$193	73.7¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$14	57.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$289	56.8¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	9.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	56.9¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$404	84.9¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$85	11.3¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$71	23.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	$35	43.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$51	76.4¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by October 31?	Yes	$790	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$15	0.8¢	Won
Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17?	Yes	$123	66.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$475	53.9¢	Won
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$411	63.3¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Wife" or "Family" during swearing-in?	Yes	$22	73.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Made in America" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$183	70.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	Yes	$6	16.9¢	Won
Will Drake release a surprise album?	Yes	$234	89.6¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?	No	$393	78.0¢	Won
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30?	Yes	$300	60.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$352	50.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	Yes	$211	73.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$113	4.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$113	28.7¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	Yes	$37	5.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$600	6.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?	No	$88	17.0¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	$12	11.5¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$470	23.0¢	Won
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$643	29.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	$658	74.5¢	Won
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	No	$83	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week?	Yes	$28	27.0¢	Lost
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite?	Jynxzi	$111	37.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Claudia Sheinbaum by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$69	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	$9	0.5¢	Lost
Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in May?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?	No	$29	81.0¢	Won
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$131	34.4¢	Won

Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31?Won
Yes$436 @ 73.4¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 34.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 14.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 19.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$472 @ 74.5¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$26 @ 15.2¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$424 @ 16.8¢
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
No$193 @ 73.7¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Won
Under$14 @ 57.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$289 @ 56.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 9.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 56.9¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$404 @ 84.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$85 @ 11.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$71 @ 23.7¢
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?Won
Yes$35 @ 43.4¢
Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
No$51 @ 76.4¢
Trump renames AI by October 31?Won
Yes$790 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$15 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17?Won
Yes$123 @ 66.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$475 @ 53.9¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$411 @ 63.3¢
Will Warsh say "Wife" or "Family" during swearing-in?Won
Yes$22 @ 73.7¢
Will Trump say "Made in America" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
No$183 @ 70.4¢
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?Won
Yes$6 @ 16.9¢
Will Drake release a surprise album?Won
Yes$234 @ 89.6¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?Won
No$393 @ 78.0¢
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30?Lost
Yes$300 @ 60.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?Won
Yes$352 @ 50.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?Won
Yes$211 @ 73.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$113 @ 4.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$113 @ 28.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?Lost
Yes$37 @ 5.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$600 @ 6.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Lost
No$88 @ 17.0¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
No$12 @ 11.5¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$470 @ 23.0¢
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$643 @ 29.2¢
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 70.0¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Won
No$658 @ 74.5¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?Lost
No$83 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week?Lost
Yes$28 @ 27.0¢
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite?Lost
Jynxzi$111 @ 37.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Claudia Sheinbaum by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in May?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?Won
No$29 @ 81.0¢
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$131 @ 34.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$764	29.5¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$397	9.0¢
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$22	69.8¢

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
Yes$764 @ 29.5¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
Yes$397 @ 9.0¢
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$22 @ 69.8¢