0xe433…136b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe43354e2d1baa7674619a1eed3834002c43e136b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.0pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

56% @ 45.5¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

124

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (22/32)	+55%	32
Politics	57% (12/21)	-1%	21
Sports	33% (1/3)	+13%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+36%	3

Other32 bets
Hit rate
69% (22/32)
ROI
+55%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
57% (12/21)
ROI
-1%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+36%

Track record

60% hit · 37/62

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$15	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$48	23.5¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$0	22.2¢	Won
Milan: Gustavo Heide vs Alex Barrena	Gustavo Heide	$10	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$8	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$8	30.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$13	25.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$13	81.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$20	3.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$39	61.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	20.7¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$15	35.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$10	21.2¢	Won
Quito: Tomas Martinez vs Eduardo Ribeiro	Tomas Martinez	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$2	21.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$20	33.7¢	Lost
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics	Athletics	$10	40.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$37	29.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$70	77.1¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$11	59.3¢	Won
Troyes: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo	Lorenzo Giustino	$10	58.8¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$10	83.7¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$8	70.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$8	23.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$8	63.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$8	55.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$24	47.7¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$24	26.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	43.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$32	27.4¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$45	44.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$8	41.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$5	78.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$11	87.4¢	Won
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$5	44.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$15	18.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$10	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$16	21.3¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$15	64.0¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$8	74.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 23.5¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$0 @ 22.2¢
Milan: Gustavo Heide vs Alex BarrenaWon
Gustavo Heide$10 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$13 @ 81.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 61.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 20.7¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$15 @ 35.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 21.2¢
Quito: Tomas Martinez vs Eduardo RibeiroLost
Tomas Martinez$10 @ 26.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$2 @ 21.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$20 @ 33.7¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsLost
Athletics$10 @ 40.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$37 @ 29.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$70 @ 77.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$11 @ 59.3¢
Troyes: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko TopoWon
Lorenzo Giustino$10 @ 58.8¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$10 @ 83.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$8 @ 70.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 23.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 63.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$8 @ 55.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$24 @ 47.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 26.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 43.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 27.4¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$45 @ 44.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$8 @ 41.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 78.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 87.4¢
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$15 @ 18.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$10 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 21.3¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$15 @ 64.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$8 @ 74.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$15	25.0¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	99.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	96.9¢
Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$15	93.0¢
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	—	Washington Nationals	$10	70.0¢

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 99.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 96.9¢
Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
No$15 @ 93.0¢
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals—
Washington Nationals$10 @ 70.0¢