0xe2f8…0ef8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe2f818be88170b399070d32308909093fab70ef8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.7pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

60% @ 49.8¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

293

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	67% (18/27)	+46%	27
Politics	43% (9/21)	-32%	21
Crypto	43% (3/7)	+31%	7
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
67% (18/27)
ROI
+46%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
43% (9/21)
ROI
-32%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 30/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	17.4¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$2	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	74.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$2	16.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$6	59.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	17.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$26	46.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	16.9¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$2	38.4¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$4	1.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	No	$2	58.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$7	22.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$17	76.6¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$5	76.3¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$2	83.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$4	8.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$5	34.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1	23.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$3	71.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	23.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.9¢	Lost
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$2	34.5¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$9	54.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$12	35.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	31.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	26.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	56.1¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$7	71.9¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	$2	27.5¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$10	78.1¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	50.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	38.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$3	78.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$2	66.4¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	45.9¢	Won
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	88.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$7	88.1¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$7	58.1¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 17.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$2 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 74.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$6 @ 59.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 17.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 46.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 16.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$2 @ 38.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
No$2 @ 58.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$7 @ 22.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 76.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$5 @ 76.3¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$2 @ 83.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 71.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 23.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.9¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
No$2 @ 34.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$9 @ 54.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 35.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 31.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 26.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 56.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 71.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.5¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$10 @ 78.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 50.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 38.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$3 @ 78.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$2 @ 66.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 45.9¢
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2 @ 88.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$7 @ 88.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Won
Yes$7 @ 58.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$29	69.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$11	97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$8	27.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$8	80.6¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$7	62.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$4	91.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	Yes	$1	54.0¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	52.0¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	65.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1	89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	28.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.9¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$29 @ 69.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$11 @ 97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$8 @ 27.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$8 @ 80.6¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 62.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$4 @ 91.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 65.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.9¢