0xd849…59d6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd849fbe04a3b6d4861ad1b0bd6be7b75679459d6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

84% @ 75.7¢

Brier

0.075

Resolved

203

Avg size

$176

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (7/20)	-46%	20
Politics	75% (3/4)	+8%	4
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+38%	3

Other20 bets
Hit rate
35% (7/20)
ROI
-46%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+38%

Track record

48% hit · 13/27

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	$11.4k	99.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$1.8k	53.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?	No	$5	3.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	$308	60.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$20.1k	84.2¢	Won
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	$90	7.2¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?	Yes	$10	67.0¢	Lost
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	Yes	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?	Yes	$10	79.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 1?	No	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	Yes	$10	19.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December?	Yes	$10	68.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$645	71.7¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?	Yes	$10	42.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	100k	$10	68.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.8k	89.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 1?	Yes	$5	1.2¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November?	Yes	$10	71.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November?	Yes	$10	23.8¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 1?	Yes	$5	31.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?	Yes	$20	64.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December?	Yes	$20	83.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	No	$2	39.1¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	Yes	$789	78.9¢	Won
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?	$4000	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November?	No	$10	77.0¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Won
No$11.4k @ 99.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 53.5¢
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?Lost
No$5 @ 3.0¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Won
Yes$308 @ 60.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$20.1k @ 84.2¢
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?Lost
Yes$90 @ 7.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?Lost
Yes$10 @ 67.0¢
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December?Lost
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?Lost
Yes$10 @ 79.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 1?Lost
No$5 @ 4.0¢
Ethereum all time high in 2024?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December?Lost
Yes$10 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$645 @ 71.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?Won
Yes$10 @ 42.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Won
100k$10 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11.8k @ 89.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November?Won
Yes$10 @ 71.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November?Won
Yes$10 @ 23.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?Lost
Yes$20 @ 64.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December?Won
Yes$20 @ 83.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
No$2 @ 39.1¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?Won
Yes$789 @ 78.9¢
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?Won
$4000$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November?Won
No$10 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Politics	No	$11.4k	99.9¢
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.4k	27.5¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.8k	36.5¢

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Politics
No$11.4k @ 99.9¢
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2.4k @ 27.5¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1.8k @ 36.5¢