0xd245…2318

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd245304a12ba711de764a45cd0912aee5ad52318
Creator: WhaleGraph

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

25% @ 20.2¢

Brier

0.015

Resolved

469

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	11% (1/9)	-90%	9
Other	44% (4/9)	-13%	9
Tech	50% (1/2)	-38%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+32%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics9 bets
Hit rate
11% (1/9)
ROI
-90%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-13%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-38%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+32%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

30% hit · 7/23

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$6	2.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	$8	41.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$25	6.3¢	Lost
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	$3	79.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$2	18.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$113	84.7¢	Won
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$9	1.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$645	75.8¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$32	8.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner	Natus Vincere	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$18	12.4¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$13	2.1¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Stefanos Tsitsipas	$1	50.0¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$9	7.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	No	$8	86.6¢	Won
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	$4	87.9¢	Won

Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$8 @ 41.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$25 @ 6.3¢
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?Won
No$3 @ 79.4¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
No$2 @ 18.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$113 @ 84.7¢
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$645 @ 75.8¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$32 @ 8.7¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$0 @ 0.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$18 @ 12.4¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
No$13 @ 2.1¢
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos TsitsipasWon
Stefanos Tsitsipas$1 @ 50.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?Won
No$8 @ 86.6¢
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Won
No$4 @ 87.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Politics	No	$85	98.7¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$82	98.6¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$64	65.9¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$53	91.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$41	67.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$34	96.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$29	40.8¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$28	0.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$26	9.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Economy	Yes	$24	92.1¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	No	$24	96.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$24	96.8¢
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$22	99.3¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$17	31.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$17	98.4¢
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$16	96.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$16	71.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Politics	No	$16	97.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$16	99.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Economy	Yes	$16	76.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	No	$16	96.3¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Economy	Yes	$14	12.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$13	77.2¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$12	0.5¢
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$12	99.6¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Economy	No	$11	33.7¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$11	79.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?	Politics	No	$10	99.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$10	75.2¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.4¢

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Politics
No$85 @ 98.7¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$82 @ 98.6¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$64 @ 65.9¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$53 @ 91.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
No$41 @ 67.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
No$34 @ 96.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Politics
Yes$29 @ 40.8¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$28 @ 0.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
No$26 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Economy
Yes$24 @ 92.1¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
No$24 @ 96.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
No$24 @ 96.8¢
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?Politics
No$22 @ 99.3¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$17 @ 31.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?Geopolitics
No$17 @ 98.4¢
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?Politics
No$16 @ 96.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$16 @ 71.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Politics
No$16 @ 97.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
No$16 @ 99.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy
Yes$16 @ 76.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
No$16 @ 96.3¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy
Yes$14 @ 12.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$13 @ 77.2¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 0.5¢
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$12 @ 99.6¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Economy
No$11 @ 33.7¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Economy
No$11 @ 79.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?Politics
No$10 @ 99.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 75.2¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢