0xc3b6…90d3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3b6e941867b8e622093adcc88bc24c9a29890d3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.4pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

56% @ 47.5¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

1414

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (140/268)	+15%	268
Politics	57% (23/40)	-11%	40
Culture	45% (9/20)	-32%	20
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	-39%	10
Tech	38% (3/8)	-55%	8
Sports	17% (1/6)	+232%	6
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+52%	1

Other268 bets
Hit rate
52% (140/268)
ROI
+15%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
57% (23/40)
ROI
-11%
Culture20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
-32%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-39%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-55%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
+232%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%

Track record

52% hit · 182/353

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	Yes	$9	73.1¢	Won
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	No	$1	81.7¢	Won
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	$8	62.1¢	Lost
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	$4	26.3¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Yes	$4	65.3¢	Won
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 32m?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	Yes	$2	38.5¢	Won
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	$2	13.2¢	Won
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	Yes	$5	77.7¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$5	83.5¢	Won
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	No	$6	64.2¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$8	11.4¢	Won
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	$1	22.3¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$11	19.8¢	Lost
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	$4	58.3¢	Won
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	$19	43.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	90.0¢	Won
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?	No	$3	87.0¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	9.2¢	Lost
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$5	84.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$4	85.2¢	Won
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$28	29.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$7	50.0¢	Won
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$14	55.4¢	Lost
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	Yes	$3	38.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.7¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	$7	48.0¢	Won
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?	No	$2	89.7¢	Lost
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?	Yes	$6	56.9¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$6	59.4¢	Won
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	$5	88.1¢	Won
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	$22	83.4¢	Won
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	$2	2.7¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	$2	57.0¢	Lost
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	Yes	$1	70.9¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	84.5¢	Won
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	$18	69.9¢	Won
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	$2	19.2¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$2	67.4¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$4	34.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$3	68.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$1	86.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$6	78.0¢	Won

Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?Won
Yes$9 @ 73.1¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?Won
No$1 @ 81.7¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?Lost
Yes$8 @ 62.1¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 26.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 65.3¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 32m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?Won
Yes$2 @ 38.5¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Won
No$2 @ 13.2¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Lost
Yes$5 @ 77.7¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 83.5¢
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Won
No$6 @ 64.2¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$8 @ 11.4¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.3¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$11 @ 19.8¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Won
No$4 @ 58.3¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Lost
Yes$19 @ 43.9¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?Won
No$3 @ 87.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.2¢
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$5 @ 84.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$4 @ 85.2¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$28 @ 29.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$7 @ 50.0¢
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Lost
Yes$14 @ 55.4¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Won
Yes$7 @ 48.0¢
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Lost
No$2 @ 89.7¢
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Won
Yes$6 @ 56.9¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$6 @ 59.4¢
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Won
No$5 @ 88.1¢
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Won
Yes$22 @ 83.4¢
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.7¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 57.0¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 25.0¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 70.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 84.5¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Won
No$18 @ 69.9¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.2¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 67.4¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 34.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
No$3 @ 68.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 78.0¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?	Culture	Yes	$11	76.5¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	Culture	No	$6	19.9¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 36m?	Culture	No	$5	84.0¢
Will "Forgotten Island" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Culture	Yes	$2	38.0¢

Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?Culture
Yes$11 @ 76.5¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?Culture
No$6 @ 19.9¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 36m?Culture
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Will "Forgotten Island" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Culture
Yes$2 @ 38.0¢