0xb8a9…2948

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce479e6baf0c2948
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.3pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

16% @ 15.2¢

Brier

0.085

Resolved

6143

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (165/589)	+7%	589
Sports	33% (51/156)	+16%	156
Politics	26% (10/38)	+18%	38
Tech	12% (3/26)	-72%	26
Culture	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other589 bets
Hit rate
28% (165/589)
ROI
+7%
Sports156 bets
Hit rate
33% (51/156)
ROI
+16%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
26% (10/38)
ROI
+18%
Tech26 bets
Hit rate
12% (3/26)
ROI
-72%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

28% hit · 229/819

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?	Yes	$61	19.3¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31?	Yes	$8	0.6¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$79	39.5¢	Won
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$351	26.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	No	$228	71.3¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 510m and 530m by August 31?	Yes	$47	1.8¢	Lost
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	$135	89.9¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	No	$6	2.4¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	No	$143	23.8¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$17	33.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$189	63.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$433	69.8¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$38	19.0¢	Lost
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$39	23.8¢	Won
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	No	$147	25.8¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$132	66.0¢	Won
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$28	2.1¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	Yes	$78	35.6¢	Lost
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	No	$332	75.4¢	Won
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?	Yes	$49	8.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$275	50.5¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$60	14.7¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$523	36.6¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	$445	89.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$7	4.8¢	Lost
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Under	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$51	57.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$253	61.7¢	Won
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 England?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	$49	49.0¢	Won
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	Over	$45	45.0¢	Lost
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	Under	$103	51.5¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	No	$68	35.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$399	10.5¢	Lost
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	No	$51	22.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$101	24.7¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	No	$249	83.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?	No	$179	51.1¢	Won
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	No	$33	33.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$123	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$88	22.0¢	Lost
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$4	34.0¢	Won
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Over	$56	56.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$12	4.1¢	Lost
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	$4	65.0¢	Won

Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?Lost
Yes$61 @ 19.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.6¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$79 @ 39.5¢
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$351 @ 26.2¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Won
No$228 @ 71.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 510m and 530m by August 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 1.8¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$135 @ 89.9¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Lost
No$6 @ 2.4¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Lost
No$143 @ 23.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$17 @ 33.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$189 @ 63.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$433 @ 69.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$38 @ 19.0¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
Yes$39 @ 23.8¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Lost
No$147 @ 25.8¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$132 @ 66.0¢
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$28 @ 2.1¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Lost
Yes$78 @ 35.6¢
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Won
No$332 @ 75.4¢
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?Lost
Yes$49 @ 8.3¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$275 @ 50.5¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$60 @ 14.7¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$523 @ 36.6¢
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Won
Yes$445 @ 89.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.8¢
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total CornersLost
Under$20 @ 20.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$51 @ 57.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$253 @ 61.7¢
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 England?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total CornersWon
Over$49 @ 49.0¢
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5Lost
Over$45 @ 45.0¢
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5Won
Under$103 @ 51.5¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Lost
No$68 @ 35.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$399 @ 10.5¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Lost
No$51 @ 22.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$101 @ 24.7¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$249 @ 83.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Won
No$179 @ 51.1¢
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$123 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 22.0¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$4 @ 34.0¢
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5Won
Over$56 @ 56.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 4.1¢
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total CornersWon
Over$4 @ 65.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$203	26.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$194	18.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$181	27.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$181	30.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$121	11.6¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$115	40.9¢
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?	Politics	Yes	$109	13.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$97	18.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$78	37.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$61	31.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$58	26.4¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Sports	Yamal	$54	49.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$48	43.9¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$48	80.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$44	49.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$43	6.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	68.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	8.9¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$38	62.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$38	7.6¢
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$36	60.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$34	35.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$34	17.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$32	8.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$31	31.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$30	50.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$28	3.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$25	18.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$25	42.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$24	12.0¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$203 @ 26.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$194 @ 18.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$181 @ 27.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$181 @ 30.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$121 @ 11.6¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$115 @ 40.9¢
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?Politics
Yes$109 @ 13.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$97 @ 18.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$78 @ 37.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$61 @ 31.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$58 @ 26.4¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Sports
Yamal$54 @ 49.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$48 @ 43.9¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$48 @ 80.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 49.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$43 @ 6.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 68.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 8.9¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$38 @ 62.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$38 @ 7.6¢
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$36 @ 60.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$34 @ 35.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$32 @ 8.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$30 @ 50.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$28 @ 3.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$25 @ 18.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 42.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢