0xadf1…6460

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xadf18a599d0c73e432d042ad6d922051ae796460
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

55% @ 46.4¢

Brier

0.246

Resolved

247

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (36/64)	+20%	64
Politics	64% (25/39)	+29%	39
Sports	33% (1/3)	+4%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+69%	1

Other64 bets
Hit rate
56% (36/64)
ROI
+20%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
64% (25/39)
ROI
+29%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+4%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+69%

Track record

58% hit · 63/108

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	No	$47	66.3¢	Won
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	No	$3	13.0¢	Won
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	Yes	$14	96.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?	Yes	$14	33.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 7, 2026?	No	$32	64.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$50	69.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?	No	$12	63.2¢	Won
Will "Powell" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand podcast?	Yes	$29	25.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on June 25, 2026?	No	$35	62.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	No	$6	59.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 10, 2026?	No	$62	61.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?	No	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	$77	83.5¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	Yes	$33	15.7¢	Lost
Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	$81	80.0¢	Won
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	$2	55.0¢	Won
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	$10	27.1¢	Lost
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	$30	74.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026?	No	$31	61.0¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$15	49.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on June 11, 2026?	No	$32	64.0¢	Won
Will Joel Harris win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14, 2026?	No	$22	55.0¢	Won
Will Statler Wright win Saddle Bronc Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	$25	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 7, 2026?	No	$47	77.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 6, 2026?	No	$56	50.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 6, 2026?	Yes	$12	20.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 12, 2026?	No	$50	62.3¢	Won
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	$7	24.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?	No	$12	57.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?	Yes	$14	52.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?	No	$22	53.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3?	No	$28	71.1¢	Won
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand podcast?	Yes	$9	21.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 13, 2026?	No	$11	55.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$5	10.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$215	81.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 8, 2026?	No	$18	67.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 20, 2026?	No	$31	61.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	No	$1	75.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	Yes	$2	34.9¢	Lost
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?	No	$46	40.2¢	Lost
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?	Yes	$14	59.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 11, 2026?	No	$12	57.0¢	Won
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	No	$54	59.9¢	Won
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	31.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 6, 2026?	Yes	$2	38.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	No	$7	88.0¢	Lost

Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Won
No$47 @ 66.3¢
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Won
No$3 @ 13.0¢
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Won
Yes$14 @ 96.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 33.5¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 7, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$50 @ 69.0¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?Won
No$12 @ 63.2¢
Will "Powell" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand podcast?Lost
Yes$29 @ 25.2¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 25, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 62.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?Won
No$6 @ 59.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 10, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 61.2¢
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?Lost
No$2 @ 3.0¢
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?Won
No$77 @ 83.5¢
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?Lost
Yes$33 @ 15.7¢
Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Won
No$81 @ 80.0¢
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Won
Yes$2 @ 55.0¢
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
Yes$10 @ 27.1¢
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Won
No$30 @ 74.5¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 61.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 49.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 11, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Will Joel Harris win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 55.0¢
Will Statler Wright win Saddle Bronc Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
No$5 @ 16.0¢
Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Won
Yes$25 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 7, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 77.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 6, 2026?Won
No$56 @ 50.3¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 20.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 12, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 62.3¢
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Won
Yes$7 @ 24.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?Lost
No$12 @ 57.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?Won
Yes$14 @ 52.7¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 53.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3?Won
No$28 @ 71.1¢
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand podcast?Lost
Yes$9 @ 21.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 13, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$5 @ 10.2¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$215 @ 81.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 8, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 67.6¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 20, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?Won
No$1 @ 75.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 34.9¢
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?Lost
No$46 @ 40.2¢
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?Won
Yes$14 @ 59.1¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 11, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 57.0¢
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?Won
No$54 @ 59.9¢
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.4¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$500	50.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$500	50.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$164	86.7¢
Will no Lemonade Stand episode air?	Politics	No	$127	93.5¢
Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$65	93.3¢
Will no episode air?	—	No	$54	90.6¢
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	—	Yes	$28	89.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$24	97.1¢
Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?	—	No	$21	6.8¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?	—	No	$19	97.0¢

Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$500 @ 50.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?—
No$164 @ 86.7¢
Will no Lemonade Stand episode air?Politics
No$127 @ 93.5¢
Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" during the next PMQ?—
No$65 @ 93.3¢
Will no episode air?—
No$54 @ 90.6¢
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?—
Yes$28 @ 89.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ?—
No$24 @ 97.1¢
Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?—
No$21 @ 6.8¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?—
No$19 @ 97.0¢