0xa510…1f80

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa510249c44a60591cbe1747eb0fd97267d431f80
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+0.9pp

ROI

+49%

Win rate

2% @ 1.4¢

Brier

0.017

Resolved

7651

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	5% (18/376)	+98%	376
Politics	26% (9/35)	-36%	35
Culture	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-40%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other376 bets
Hit rate
5% (18/376)
ROI
+98%
Politics35 bets
Hit rate
26% (9/35)
ROI
-36%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-40%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

7% hit · 28/430

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$59	7.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$83	4.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 8?	Yes	$26	0.2¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$42	21.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET?	Yes	$141	0.4¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4000 July 14–20?	Yes	$101	1.8¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$13	3.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$9	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$84	7.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?	No	$0	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 16?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26?	Yes	$24	0.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16?	Yes	$19	1.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3100 and $3200 on July 15 at 5PM ET?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET?	Yes	$7	0.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3600 July 14–20?	Yes	$50	12.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 16?	Yes	$8	4.7¢	Lost
Syria strikes Israel by Friday?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8?	Yes	$9	0.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2?	No	$173	0.2¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?	Yes	$63	10.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$36	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	$40	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$273	2.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 9?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	73.1¢	Won
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?	Yes	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 27?	Yes	$18	0.2¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$535	46.6¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 9?	Yes	$25	0.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 23?	Yes	$24	0.4¢	Lost
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8?	No	$38	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 27?	Yes	$83	1.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 24?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10?	No	$16	0.2¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran before August?	Yes	$44	11.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 27?	Yes	$16	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3500 on July 18 at 5PM ET?	No	$120	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?	Yes	$71	8.1¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	No	$65	4.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?	Yes	$58	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$68	8.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 16?	Yes	$9	4.7¢	Lost

Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$59 @ 7.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$83 @ 4.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 8?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.2¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 21.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET?Lost
Yes$141 @ 0.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $4000 July 14–20?Lost
Yes$101 @ 1.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 3.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Lost
Yes$84 @ 7.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?Lost
No$0 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 16?Won
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3100 and $3200 on July 15 at 5PM ET?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $3600 July 14–20?Won
Yes$50 @ 12.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 16?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.7¢
Syria strikes Israel by Friday?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2?Lost
No$173 @ 0.2¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?Lost
Yes$63 @ 10.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.4¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$273 @ 2.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 9?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.1¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 27?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.2¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$535 @ 46.6¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 9?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 23?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.4¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8?Lost
No$38 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 27?Lost
Yes$83 @ 1.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 24?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10?Lost
No$16 @ 0.2¢
Israel strikes Iran before August?Lost
Yes$44 @ 11.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 27?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3500 on July 18 at 5PM ET?Lost
No$120 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?Lost
Yes$71 @ 8.1¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Lost
No$65 @ 4.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?Lost
Yes$58 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Lost
Yes$68 @ 8.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 16?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Science	No	$45	30.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	Science	Yes	$29	30.1¢
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 170m and 180m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$0	0.1¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.2¢

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?Science
No$45 @ 30.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?Science
Yes$29 @ 30.1¢
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 170m and 180m by October 31?Culture
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢