0x96ef…5523

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x96ef5e15412e280b23b23a92c444c8d262a15523
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.4pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

30% @ 27.7¢

Brier

0.092

Resolved

5045

Avg size

$96

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (96/181)	+25%	181
Politics	49% (32/65)	-60%	65
Geopolitics	17% (2/12)	-78%	12
Tech	100% (8/8)	+51%	8
Crypto	33% (2/6)	-38%	6

Other181 bets
Hit rate
53% (96/181)
ROI
+25%
Politics65 bets
Hit rate
49% (32/65)
ROI
-60%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
17% (2/12)
ROI
-78%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+51%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-38%

Track record

51% hit · 140/272

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.1k	79.9¢	Won
Will Trump name an AI czar by September 30, 2026?	No	$62	95.7¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$492	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$1.2k	97.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	Yes	$418	83.2¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$345	23.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	49.5¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$160	15.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$1.0k	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$62	77.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	14.5¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$1.4k	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$6	52.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$116	15.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$925	14.4¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$147	17.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$5.4k	86.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$128	16.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$36	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.0k	35.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$87	62.1¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	44.5¢	Won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5	Over	$81	81.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$4.7k	69.7¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$7.2k	66.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$2.7k	77.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$1.3k	13.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$65	47.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	No	$475	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$599	12.9¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$2.4k	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	68.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$3.3k	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?	No	$1.0k	79.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$1.1k	82.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.0k	80.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$742	13.9¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$301	88.3¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$829	40.6¢	Won
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1)	UAE	$50	5.6¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$380	8.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.6k	37.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$861	32.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$3.5k	71.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?	Yes	$264	24.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$1.7k	86.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$600	3.0¢	Lost

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 79.9¢
Will Trump name an AI czar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 95.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$492 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 97.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$418 @ 83.2¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$345 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 49.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 15.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 86.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$62 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 14.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 86.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$6 @ 52.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$116 @ 15.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$925 @ 14.4¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$147 @ 17.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$5.4k @ 86.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$128 @ 16.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$36 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11.0k @ 35.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$87 @ 62.1¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 44.5¢
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$81 @ 81.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 69.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$7.2k @ 66.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$2.7k @ 77.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 13.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$65 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Won
No$475 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$599 @ 12.9¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 74.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 68.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$3.3k @ 11.0¢
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?Won
No$1.0k @ 79.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$1.1k @ 82.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1.0k @ 80.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$742 @ 13.9¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$301 @ 88.3¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$829 @ 40.6¢
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1)Lost
UAE$50 @ 5.6¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$380 @ 8.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7.6k @ 37.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$861 @ 32.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 71.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?Lost
Yes$264 @ 24.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$600 @ 3.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026?	Tech	No	$647	97.0¢

Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026?Tech
No$647 @ 97.0¢