0x9032…b5c3

Specialization by sphere

• Politics12 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (4/12)

  ROI

  +98%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +28%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +9%

• Other2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +36%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +233%

• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
  Yes$88 @ 29.7¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$148 @ 12.3¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$180 @ 30.0¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
  No$21 @ 42.6¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
  Yes$106 @ 30.0¢
• Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Won
  No$41 @ 82.2¢
• Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?Won
  Yes$8 @ 77.0¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 13.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$160 @ 16.0¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
  Yes$195 @ 65.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$700 @ 87.5¢
• Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 7.1¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
  No$14 @ 5.9¢
• Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
• Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
• Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$203 @ 77.3¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$520 @ 74.3¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$880 @ 30.4¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$225 @ 64.3¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Won
  Yes$293 @ 73.3¢

Current positions

• Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.9k @ 97.8¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$2.9k @ 50.0¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$2.9k @ 50.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$2.2k @ 74.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
  Yes$1000 @ 25.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$700 @ 87.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$564 @ 93.4¢
• Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?—
  Yes$372 @ 83.2¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$273 @ 43.9¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  No$223 @ 44.6¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$216 @ 54.0¢
• Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?—
  No$127 @ 28.5¢
• Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?—
  Yes$41 @ 5.1¢
• Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
  Yes$18 @ 88.0¢
• Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$16 @ 3.0¢
• Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Politics
  No$13 @ 55.9¢
• Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Culture
  Yes$10 @ 41.7¢
• Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
• Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$7 @ 7.1¢