0x9032…b5c3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x90323218cd86b964feb4ee2317422a2a5286b5c3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.4pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

41% @ 36.2¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

902

Avg size

$66

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	48% (51/106)	+56%	106
Other	53% (31/59)	-6%	59
Geopolitics	39% (7/18)	-15%	18
Tech	75% (3/4)	+30%	4
Culture	50% (2/4)	+128%	4
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+94%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+0%	1

Politics106 bets
Hit rate
48% (51/106)
ROI
+56%
Other59 bets
Hit rate
53% (31/59)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-15%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+30%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+128%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+94%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%

Track record

49% hit · 97/196

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$16	44.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$114	6.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	26.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	33.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$56	55.7¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$45	9.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$13	65.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$410	49.4¢	Won
Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	$24	23.3¢	Won
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	No	$129	46.0¢	Lost
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Yes	$109	8.6¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$88	29.7¢	Lost
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	$25	55.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$39	77.7¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$48	16.0¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?	No	$17	10.7¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$71	79.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$148	12.3¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?	Yes	$67	86.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$707	44.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	15.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$192	77.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$661	7.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Germany" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	$18	35.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$18	3.5¢	Lost
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?	Yes	$13	74.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$180	30.0¢	Won
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	No	$137	30.5¢	Won
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$56	20.6¢	Lost
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Yes	$14	46.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$21	8.0¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$104	31.9¢	Lost
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$344	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$4	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$23	78.0¢	Won
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$192	4.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$746	50.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1.3k	46.8¢	Won
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	No	$232	76.0¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1.1k	31.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	$20	13.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$21	42.6¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$106	30.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$503	50.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	23.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$319	4.8¢	Lost
Will the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	No	$6	85.0¢	Won

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$16 @ 44.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$114 @ 6.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 33.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$56 @ 55.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$45 @ 9.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 65.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$410 @ 49.4¢
Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Won
Yes$24 @ 23.3¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Lost
No$129 @ 46.0¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?Lost
Yes$109 @ 8.6¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$88 @ 29.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Won
No$25 @ 55.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$39 @ 77.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$48 @ 16.0¢
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?Lost
No$17 @ 10.7¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$71 @ 79.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$148 @ 12.3¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$707 @ 44.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 15.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$192 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$661 @ 7.1¢
Will Trump say "Germany" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Won
No$18 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.5¢
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Won
Yes$13 @ 74.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$180 @ 30.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Won
No$137 @ 30.5¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$56 @ 20.6¢
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?Lost
Yes$14 @ 46.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$21 @ 8.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 31.9¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$344 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$4 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Won
Yes$23 @ 78.0¢
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$192 @ 4.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$746 @ 50.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 46.8¢
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Won
No$232 @ 76.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 31.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$21 @ 42.6¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$106 @ 30.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$503 @ 50.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 23.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$319 @ 4.8¢
Will the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Won
No$6 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	82.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	68.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.1k	49.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$1.0k	66.2¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Politics	Yes	$910	91.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$662	62.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$571	27.0¢
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Politics	No	$380	76.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$282	60.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$240	80.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$225	75.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$189	63.0¢
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$165	38.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$142	23.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Politics	No	$133	45.3¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$118	84.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Politics	No	$93	92.9¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Politics	No	$68	68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$60	19.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$44	21.9¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	Yes	$42	14.0¢
Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$36	18.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Politics	No	$33	50.0¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$33	52.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$32	8.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32	8.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 5%-10%?	Politics	No	$25	81.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	5.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Tech	No	$25	79.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?	Politics	Yes	$21	52.5¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 82.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 68.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$1.1k @ 49.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$1.0k @ 66.2¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Politics
Yes$910 @ 91.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$662 @ 62.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$571 @ 27.0¢
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Politics
No$380 @ 76.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$282 @ 60.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$240 @ 80.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$225 @ 75.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$189 @ 63.0¢
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$165 @ 38.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$142 @ 23.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Politics
No$133 @ 45.3¢
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$118 @ 84.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Politics
No$93 @ 92.9¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Politics
No$68 @ 68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 19.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$44 @ 21.9¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
Yes$36 @ 18.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Politics
No$33 @ 50.0¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?Politics
Yes$33 @ 52.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Politics
No$32 @ 8.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$32 @ 8.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 5%-10%?Politics
No$25 @ 81.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech
No$25 @ 79.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?Politics
Yes$21 @ 52.5¢