← Smart money
0x8db5…3c8b
SharpEdge
-7.7pp
ROI
+21%
Win rate
23% @ 30.9¢
Brier
0.208
Resolved
194
Avg size
$25
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 16% (4/25) | -45% | 25 |
| Tech | 22% (4/18) | +39% | 18 |
| Other | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +900% | 1 |
- Politics25 bets
- Hit rate
- 16% (4/25)
- ROI
- -45%
- Tech18 bets
- Hit rate
- 22% (4/18)
- ROI
- +39%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +900%
Track record
18% hit · 9/50- No$43 @ 39.0¢
- No$30 @ 22.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$97 @ 7.8¢
- No$45 @ 53.0¢
- No$30 @ 31.2¢
- No$20 @ 10.0¢
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?LostNo$84 @ 62.8¢
- Yes$69 @ 27.8¢
- Yes$13 @ 65.3¢
- No$34 @ 11.3¢
- Yes$390 @ 72.1¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
- No$1 @ 21.7¢
- Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 1.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 55.0¢
- No$274 @ 1.6¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$41 @ 44.2¢
- Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
- No$69 @ 53.4¢
- Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 14.3¢
- Yes$75 @ 4.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
- No$34 @ 55.0¢
- No$102 @ 43.3¢
- No$104 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?LostYes$8 @ 2.8¢
- No$9 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 27.6¢
- Yes$16 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 48.0¢
- No$3 @ 15.0¢
- No$23 @ 22.0¢
- No$107 @ 55.6¢
- Yes$98 @ 54.5¢
- Yes$4 @ 5.8¢
- No$3 @ 3.4¢
- Yes$6 @ 5.5¢
- No$63 @ 62.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Tech | No | $348 | 23.4¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Politics | Yes | $150 | 30.0¢ |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | Crypto | No | $110 | 11.2¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $52 | 7.0¢ |
| Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | Tech | No | $43 | 39.0¢ |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $32 | 3.2¢ |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | Tech | Yes | $14 | 18.4¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $5 | 12.0¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Politics | No | $4 | 36.0¢ |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.6¢ |
- No$348 @ 23.4¢
- Yes$150 @ 30.0¢
- No$110 @ 11.2¢
- Yes$52 @ 7.0¢
- No$43 @ 39.0¢
- Yes$32 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$14 @ 18.4¢
- No$5 @ 12.0¢
- No$4 @ 36.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 0.6¢