← Smart money
0x88fe…f516
ProfitableEdge
-16.8pp
ROI
+4%
Win rate
30% @ 46.3¢
Brier
0.178
Resolved
210
Avg size
$200
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 42% (25/60) | -2% | 60 |
| Politics | 36% (10/28) | +32% | 28 |
| Sports | 17% (1/6) | -93% | 6 |
| Crypto | 50% (1/2) | +13% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +22% | 1 |
- Other60 bets
- Hit rate
- 42% (25/60)
- ROI
- -2%
- Politics28 bets
- Hit rate
- 36% (10/28)
- ROI
- +32%
- Sports6 bets
- Hit rate
- 17% (1/6)
- ROI
- -93%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +13%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +22%
Track record
39% hit · 38/98- No$8 @ 23.0¢
- No$8 @ 15.8¢
- No$1 @ 16.0¢
- No$302 @ 73.0¢
- No$111 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 28.2¢
- Yes$100 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$62 @ 8.0¢
- No$40 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$67 @ 43.0¢
- No$50 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$401 @ 5.4¢
- Yes$90 @ 31.9¢
- Yes$65 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$68 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 81.7¢
- Yes$100 @ 73.5¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 88.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 17.1¢
- Yes$85 @ 27.0¢
- No$200 @ 79.8¢
- Yes$13 @ 8.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$412 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 38.1¢
- No$600 @ 78.0¢
- No$1 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$102 @ 54.0¢
- No$483 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 8.2¢
- No$1000 @ 70.1¢
- No$200 @ 41.6¢
- Yes$200 @ 33.7¢
- No$80 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 41.4¢
- Yes$300 @ 87.9¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 64.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 63.6¢
- No$2 @ 9.6¢
- Rico$102 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$150 @ 39.0¢
- No$1 @ 12.0¢
- Tate$524 @ 84.0¢
- No$988 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$104 @ 42.6¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 81.9¢
- Yes$100 @ 54.4¢
- No$50 @ 61.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $1.2k | 89.0¢ |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.0k | 95.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $500 | 17.0¢ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $344 | 86.0¢ |
| Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $300 | 72.9¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | Politics | No | $124 | 61.6¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $120 | 76.4¢ |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $120 | 14.0¢ |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Tech | No | $100 | 45.1¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026? | Politics | No | $23 | 12.1¢ |
- Yes$1.2k @ 89.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 95.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 17.0¢
- No$344 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$300 @ 72.9¢
- No$124 @ 61.6¢
- No$120 @ 76.4¢
- Yes$120 @ 14.0¢
- No$100 @ 45.1¢
- No$23 @ 12.1¢