← Smart money
0x8693…352b
SharpEdge
+31.3pp
ROI
+23%
Win rate
90% @ 59.0¢
Brier
0.169
Resolved
31
Avg size
$444
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | -2% | 4 |
| Other | 75% (3/4) | -12% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +35% | 2 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -2%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- -12%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +35%
Track record
70% hit · 7/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | $20 | 32.9¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | $8.0k | 72.9¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $1.6k | 81.2¢ | Won |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | Yes | $159 | 31.0¢ | Lost |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | Yes | $1.3k | 28.0¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $152 | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | $2.2k | 67.8¢ | Won |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $59 | 17.0¢ | Lost |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | $65 | 75.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $210 | 51.0¢ | Won |
- No$20 @ 32.9¢
- No$8.0k @ 72.9¢
- No$1.6k @ 81.2¢
- Yes$159 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 28.0¢
- No$152 @ 76.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 67.8¢
- Yes$59 @ 17.0¢
- No$65 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$210 @ 51.0¢
Recent trades
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