0x819d…07f1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x819dfea4ffa9c4d3ef27f00e2dbac7e9e93507f1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

51% @ 48.6¢

Brier

0.211

Resolved

2435

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	47% (390/831)	-6%	831
Politics	58% (38/65)	+85%	65
Sports	55% (16/29)	+42%	29
Culture	77% (10/13)	+51%	13
Tech	82% (9/11)	+77%	11
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	+25%	5
Other	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Science831 bets
Hit rate
47% (390/831)
ROI
-6%
Politics65 bets
Hit rate
58% (38/65)
ROI
+85%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
55% (16/29)
ROI
+42%
Culture13 bets
Hit rate
77% (10/13)
ROI
+51%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+77%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+25%
Other1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

49% hit · 466/955

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 19?	Yes	$21	21.0¢	Lost
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?	Yes	$35	53.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 19?	Yes	$34	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 19?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on October 19?	No	$100	88.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 19?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	$6	45.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 19?	No	$55	55.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 19?	Yes	$19	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 19?	No	$48	95.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 19?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	No	$388	79.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 19?	No	$58	29.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 19?	No	$34	68.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 19?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 19?	Yes	$4	56.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 19?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 19?	No	$19	94.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on October 19?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 19?	No	$64	64.0¢	Won
Will "Other Mommy" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	Yes	$1.3k	87.7¢	Won
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?	Yes	$55	66.0¢	Lost
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	No	$118	75.9¢	Won
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	$286	72.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 16?	No	$2	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 10?	No	$1	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 11?	No	$178	68.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 11?	Yes	$46	30.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 13?	No	$40	79.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?	No	$63	56.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?	Yes	$26	51.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 11?	No	$161	80.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 10?	Yes	$25	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 10?	Yes	$30	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	Yes	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 11?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on October 13?	No	$207	83.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	No	$24	44.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 15?	Yes	$22	16.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	Yes	$9	38.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 12?	Yes	$22	44.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 11?	No	$11	65.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 11?	Yes	$44	38.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?	No	$81	58.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	$6	57.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on October 11?	Yes	$5	9.4¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 13?	No	$3	74.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on October 10?	Yes	$15	16.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 11?	Yes	$95	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on October 11?	No	$76	76.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?Won
Yes$35 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on October 19?Won
No$100 @ 88.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 19?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 19?Won
Yes$6 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 19?Won
No$55 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$19 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 19?Won
No$48 @ 95.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 19?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?Won
No$388 @ 79.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 19?Lost
No$58 @ 29.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 19?Lost
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 19?Won
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 19?Won
Yes$4 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 19?Won
No$19 @ 94.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on October 19?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 19?Won
No$64 @ 64.0¢
Will "Other Mommy" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 87.7¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?Lost
Yes$55 @ 66.0¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?Won
No$118 @ 75.9¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Won
Yes$286 @ 72.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 16?Won
No$2 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 10?Lost
No$1 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 11?Won
No$178 @ 68.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$46 @ 30.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 13?Won
No$40 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?Lost
No$63 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?Won
Yes$26 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 11?Won
No$161 @ 80.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 10?Lost
Yes$25 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 10?Lost
Yes$30 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on October 13?Won
No$207 @ 83.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?Lost
No$24 @ 44.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 15?Lost
Yes$22 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?Won
Yes$9 @ 38.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 12?Lost
Yes$22 @ 44.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 11?Won
No$11 @ 65.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$44 @ 38.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?Won
No$81 @ 58.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?Won
Yes$6 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on October 11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.4¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 13?Lost
No$3 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on October 10?Lost
Yes$15 @ 16.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$95 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on October 11?Lost
No$76 @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$13.5k	64.9¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$7.9k	87.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$6.4k	64.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.9k	38.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.4k	60.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	64.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$3.0k	73.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	28.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	87.2¢
Will "Other Mommy" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	Culture	Yes	$1.3k	87.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	76.4¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Politics	No	$970	97.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Politics	Yes	$967	88.5¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Politics	No	$960	96.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Tech	No	$941	72.1¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$886	78.4¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	No	$756	88.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?	Tech	No	$660	60.0¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Politics	No	$644	28.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Politics	No	$541	25.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Tech	No	$511	31.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Politics	No	$485	97.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Politics	No	$480	96.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$395	17.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Politics	No	$388	22.5¢
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Culture	No	$388	79.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$338	67.6¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$293	98.0¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Culture	Yes	$286	72.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	No	$261	71.9¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$13.5k @ 64.9¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$7.9k @ 87.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$6.4k @ 64.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$3.9k @ 38.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$3.4k @ 60.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 64.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
Yes$3.0k @ 73.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 28.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 87.2¢
Will "Other Mommy" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?Culture
Yes$1.3k @ 87.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 76.4¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Politics
No$970 @ 97.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Politics
Yes$967 @ 88.5¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Politics
No$960 @ 96.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech
No$941 @ 72.1¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$886 @ 78.4¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
No$756 @ 88.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Tech
No$660 @ 60.0¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
No$644 @ 28.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Politics
No$541 @ 25.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Tech
No$511 @ 31.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Politics
No$485 @ 97.0¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Politics
No$480 @ 96.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$395 @ 17.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Politics
No$388 @ 22.5¢
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?Culture
No$388 @ 79.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$338 @ 67.6¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$293 @ 98.0¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Culture
Yes$286 @ 72.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
No$261 @ 71.9¢