0x708d…ea78

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x708dba576d798c24215e267413503269fe39ea78
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.4pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

43% @ 38.0¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

1011

Avg size

$251

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (129/259)	+6%	259
Politics	41% (35/85)	+28%	85
Geopolitics	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Tech	33% (1/3)	-80%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+34%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+74%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other259 bets
Hit rate
50% (129/259)
ROI
+6%
Politics85 bets
Hit rate
41% (35/85)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-80%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+34%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+74%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

47% hit · 168/358

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	$3.5k	89.6¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?	Yes	$33	97.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$38	24.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$2.5k	41.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$131	68.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$57	20.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$26	4.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Out of NATO" or "Withdraw" during events with Rutte?	No	$26	41.7¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$57	14.0¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner	Oh My God	$124	31.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$4.2k	89.0¢	Won
Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs?	No	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	$131	62.5¢	Won
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?	Yes	$53	53.0¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$666	57.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$12	2.2¢	Lost
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner	T1	$453	66.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$801	36.0¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$272	77.6¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?	Yes	$16	2.9¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	$371	41.3¢	Won
Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?	No	$9	4.5¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	$493	23.2¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	$125	39.5¢	Lost
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$54	12.5¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$784	53.3¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "TSA" during the next White House press briefing?	No	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$159	2.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$1.1k	37.1¢	Won
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?	No	$33	66.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	No	$917	69.7¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$108	17.9¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)	Kevin Vallejos	$500	81.0¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$674	25.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$150	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?	Yes	$41	22.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$33	13.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$436	69.3¢	Won
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	No	$600	58.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	77.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	No	$15	3.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$1.4k	23.8¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Thunder	Thunder	$2	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	$8	55.0¢	Won
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner	Team WE	$948	64.7¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$160	40.2¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 1?	Yes	$1.3k	72.9¢	Won
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?	No	$441	23.9¢	Lost

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 89.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?Won
Yes$33 @ 97.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 24.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 41.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$131 @ 68.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$57 @ 20.2¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
Yes$26 @ 4.3¢
Will Trump say "Out of NATO" or "Withdraw" during events with Rutte?Won
No$26 @ 41.7¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$57 @ 14.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 WinnerLost
Oh My God$124 @ 31.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$4.2k @ 89.0¢
Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs? Lost
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?Won
No$131 @ 62.5¢
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?Won
Yes$53 @ 53.0¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$666 @ 57.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 2.2¢
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerWon
T1$453 @ 66.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$801 @ 36.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 WinnerWon
Invictus Gaming$272 @ 77.6¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.9¢
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 WinnerWon
Team WE$371 @ 41.3¢
Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
No$9 @ 4.5¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Lost
No$493 @ 23.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Lost
Yes$125 @ 39.5¢
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Lost
Yes$54 @ 12.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$784 @ 53.3¢
Will Leavitt say "TSA" during the next White House press briefing?Won
No$10 @ 48.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$159 @ 2.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 37.1¢
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?Won
No$33 @ 66.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Won
No$917 @ 69.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$108 @ 17.9¢
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Won
Kevin Vallejos$500 @ 81.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$674 @ 25.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$150 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Won
Yes$41 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 13.8¢
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$436 @ 69.3¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Won
No$600 @ 58.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 3.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 23.8¢
Pacers vs. ThunderWon
Thunder$2 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week?Won
No$8 @ 55.0¢
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team WE$948 @ 64.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$160 @ 40.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 1?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 72.9¢
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?Lost
No$441 @ 23.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$9.7k	42.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$5.4k	93.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$1.3k	16.7¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$230	57.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$197	66.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$72	16.0¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$67	43.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	70.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Politics	Yes	$3	4.5¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$0	6.0¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$9.7k @ 42.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$5.4k @ 93.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$1.3k @ 16.7¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$230 @ 57.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$197 @ 66.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?Politics
Yes$72 @ 16.0¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$67 @ 43.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Politics
Yes$3 @ 4.5¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢