← Smart money
0x6f64…32b3
SharpEdge
+13.2pp
ROI
+82%
Win rate
51% @ 37.5¢
Brier
0.199
Resolved
945
Avg size
$39
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 41% (50/123) | +89% | 123 |
| Politics | 72% (18/25) | +19% | 25 |
| Sports | 80% (4/5) | +72% | 5 |
| Tech | 33% (1/3) | -96% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +65% | 1 |
- Other123 bets
- Hit rate
- 41% (50/123)
- ROI
- +89%
- Politics25 bets
- Hit rate
- 72% (18/25)
- ROI
- +19%
- Sports5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +72%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -96%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +65%
Track record
47% hit · 74/157- No$389 @ 96.7¢
- No$153 @ 95.1¢
- No$97 @ 96.5¢
- No$195 @ 65.8¢
- No$137 @ 75.9¢
- No$539 @ 87.2¢
- No$1 @ 15.0¢
- Luciano Darderi$25 @ 62.0¢
- No$158 @ 79.0¢
- No$243 @ 81.0¢
- No$83 @ 7.2¢
- Hornets$107 @ 33.4¢
- No$1 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 6.9¢
- Yes$125 @ 25.0¢
- No$60 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$42 @ 84.0¢
- No$60 @ 74.7¢
- No$75 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
- Nawrocki$18 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
- No$2 @ 66.0¢
- No$13 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$723 @ 7.0¢
- No$146 @ 80.8¢
- Yes$36 @ 9.4¢
- Yes$8 @ 80.0¢
- No$1 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 76.7¢
- Nawrocki$0 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$64 @ 8.0¢
- No$150 @ 73.4¢
- Yes$206 @ 6.1¢
- No$3 @ 17.0¢
- No$13 @ 66.0¢
- No$23 @ 26.0¢
- No$223 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$259 @ 16.2¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$13 @ 4.2¢
- No$217 @ 49.2¢
- Yes$234 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$56 @ 70.0¢
- No$121 @ 56.1¢
- Yes$61 @ 86.9¢
- No$306 @ 83.8¢
- Trzaskowski$76 @ 76.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | Politics | Yes | $820 | 82.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $810 | 81.0¢ |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $455 | 91.0¢ |
| Paris curfew by October 21? | Politics | No | $389 | 96.7¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $350 | 70.0¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | Politics | Yes | $322 | 92.0¢ |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $145 | 79.0¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $114 | 95.3¢ |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | Culture | No | $111 | 86.0¢ |
| Will Republicans win white voters in the Texas Senate election? | Politics | Yes | $46 | 93.0¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $9 | 43.0¢ |
- Yes$820 @ 82.0¢
- No$810 @ 81.0¢
- No$455 @ 91.0¢
- Paris curfew by October 21?PoliticsNo$389 @ 96.7¢
- No$350 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$322 @ 92.0¢
- No$145 @ 79.0¢
- No$114 @ 95.3¢
- No$111 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$46 @ 93.0¢
- No$9 @ 43.0¢