← Smart money
0x6979…c2a3
ProfitableEdge
+60.6pp
ROI
+1046%
Win rate
70% @ 9.5¢
Brier
0.613
Resolved
167
Avg size
$157
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 25% (2/8) | +1102% | 8 |
| Politics | 33% (1/3) | -23% | 3 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (2/8)
- ROI
- +1102%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -23%
Track record
27% hit · 3/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Yes | $149 | 0.3¢ | Lost |
| Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $434 | 26.8¢ | Lost |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Yes | $102 | 38.0¢ | Won |
| Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $1.9k | 10.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | $533 | 7.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $330 | 5.8¢ | Lost |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $104 | 24.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $1.3k | 5.7¢ | Lost |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | No | $1.0k | 49.3¢ | Won |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | $100 | 12.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | $20.4k | 6.6¢ | Won |
- Yes$149 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$434 @ 26.8¢
- Yes$102 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 10.0¢
- Yes$533 @ 7.1¢
- Yes$330 @ 5.8¢
- Yes$104 @ 24.4¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 5.7¢
- No$1.0k @ 49.3¢
- Yes$100 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$20.4k @ 6.6¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $600 | 17.0¢ |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $100 | 86.1¢ |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? | Politics | No | $50 | 90.1¢ |
- Yes$600 @ 17.0¢
- Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?PoliticsYes$100 @ 86.1¢
- No$50 @ 90.1¢