0x66be…1148

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x66bec80c9926363db7761c5035bc5f8d3d871148
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

66% @ 61.3¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

2122

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	70% (51/73)	+14%	73
Other	57% (32/56)	+3%	56
Geopolitics	65% (11/17)	+9%	17
Crypto	67% (6/9)	+26%	9
Economy	50% (2/4)	-6%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	+5%	2

Politics73 bets
Hit rate
70% (51/73)
ROI
+14%
Other56 bets
Hit rate
57% (32/56)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
65% (11/17)
ROI
+9%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+26%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-6%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+5%

Track record

64% hit · 103/161

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	$11	52.8¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	$10	70.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$6	39.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$8	48.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$172	63.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$5	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$276	73.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$108	86.8¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$6	71.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$379	74.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	32.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$126	80.2¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$240	61.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$400	83.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$149	30.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$416	48.5¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$25	32.4¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$228	74.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$10	45.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$2	42.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$361	70.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$137	40.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$272	59.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$387	83.3¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$35	86.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	No	$58	82.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$82	27.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$915	74.7¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$272	72.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$4	81.8¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$10	65.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$374	60.7¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$205	84.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$161	81.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$260	64.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$38	53.4¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$25	41.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$89	54.6¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$343	68.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$12	76.6¢	Won
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$27	75.5¢	Won
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$317	81.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	$310	79.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	$18	16.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$16	42.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$22	59.8¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$3	85.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 52.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Lost
No$10 @ 70.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$6 @ 39.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$8 @ 48.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$172 @ 63.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$276 @ 73.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$108 @ 86.8¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 71.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$379 @ 74.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$126 @ 80.2¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$240 @ 61.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 83.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$149 @ 30.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$416 @ 48.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$25 @ 32.4¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$228 @ 74.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$10 @ 45.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 42.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$361 @ 70.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$137 @ 40.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$272 @ 59.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$387 @ 83.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 82.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$82 @ 27.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$915 @ 74.7¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$272 @ 72.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$4 @ 81.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$10 @ 65.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$374 @ 60.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$205 @ 84.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$161 @ 81.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$260 @ 64.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$38 @ 53.4¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 41.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 54.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$343 @ 68.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$12 @ 76.6¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 75.5¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$317 @ 81.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Won
No$310 @ 79.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 16.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$16 @ 42.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$22 @ 59.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 85.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$76	75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$23	67.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$13	64.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$13	62.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	51.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	49.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$5	49.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	39.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	35.0¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
No$76 @ 75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$23 @ 67.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$13 @ 62.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 49.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 39.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 35.0¢