0x6630…2f4e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6630c34aa5836d4610fb6303d0ee9d966cd42f4e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.0pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

75% @ 67.6¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

1933

Avg size

$114

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (123/181)	+3%	181
Politics	71% (42/59)	-1%	59
Geopolitics	79% (19/24)	+21%	24
Tech	75% (6/8)	+19%	8
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+101%	2
Business	100% (2/2)	+24%	2

Other181 bets
Hit rate
68% (123/181)
ROI
+3%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
71% (42/59)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
79% (19/24)
ROI
+21%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+19%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+101%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%

Track record

70% hit · 193/276

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$849	79.7¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$132	80.9¢	Won
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	Yes	$14	27.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.7k	77.8¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$449	74.0¢	Won
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	No	$2.9k	89.5¢	Won
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$50	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$333	27.8¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$6.8k	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$534	89.0¢	Won
OpenAI browser by September 30?	No	$844	77.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$340	85.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$50	59.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$519	75.5¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$70	58.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$59	53.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$380	87.4¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	No	$291	38.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$72	34.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?	No	$1.9k	82.1¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$78	82.5¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$1.0k	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$1.4k	89.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$116	19.3¢	Lost
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?	No	$1.9k	76.6¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?	Yes	$189	51.4¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$1.1k	89.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$150	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$752	81.2¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$79	79.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$534	89.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	No	$584	71.3¢	Lost
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?	No	$39	13.0¢	Lost
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	No	$1.3k	88.1¢	Won
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Yes	$84	11.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$158	79.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	$1.7k	82.6¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$220	77.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$3.7k	67.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$518	32.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$185	18.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$391	70.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$19.9k	80.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$460	61.3¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?	No	$257	80.4¢	Won

GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$849 @ 79.7¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$132 @ 80.9¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Lost
Yes$14 @ 27.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 77.8¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$449 @ 74.0¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Won
No$2.9k @ 89.5¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
Yes$50 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$333 @ 27.8¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$6.8k @ 85.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$534 @ 89.0¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Won
No$844 @ 77.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$340 @ 85.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$50 @ 59.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$519 @ 75.5¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$70 @ 58.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$59 @ 53.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$380 @ 87.4¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Lost
No$291 @ 38.4¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?Lost
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
No$72 @ 34.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?Won
No$1.9k @ 82.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$78 @ 82.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$1.0k @ 88.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 89.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$116 @ 19.3¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Won
No$1.9k @ 76.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?Lost
Yes$189 @ 51.4¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 89.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$150 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$752 @ 81.2¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
No$79 @ 79.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$534 @ 89.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Lost
No$584 @ 71.3¢
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?Lost
No$39 @ 13.0¢
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 88.1¢
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Lost
Yes$84 @ 11.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$158 @ 79.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
No$1.7k @ 82.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$220 @ 77.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$3.7k @ 67.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$518 @ 32.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$185 @ 18.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$391 @ 70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$19.9k @ 80.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$460 @ 61.3¢
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?Won
No$257 @ 80.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.1k	80.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	80.1¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$2.7k	50.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.9k	93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.5k	75.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.3k	63.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	72.2¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$940	94.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$790	79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$760	66.1¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$266	66.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$243	77.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$240	40.0¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Politics	No	$229	57.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$191	42.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$67	9.9¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$35	8.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$0	0.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.1k @ 80.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 80.1¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$2.7k @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.9k @ 93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.5k @ 75.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.3k @ 63.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 72.2¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$790 @ 79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$760 @ 66.1¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$266 @ 66.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$243 @ 77.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$240 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Politics
No$229 @ 57.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$191 @ 42.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$67 @ 9.9¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$35 @ 8.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$0 @ 0.0¢