0x651a…22e9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x651a84ec4aab705bb3d8f4c831ef46ecdbc622e9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

24% @ 17.9¢

Brier

0.132

Resolved

999

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (32/103)	+14%	103
Politics	0% (0/40)	-100%	40
Sports	8% (1/12)	-16%	12
Culture	50% (4/8)	+53%	8
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+150%	1

Other103 bets
Hit rate
31% (32/103)
ROI
+14%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/40)
ROI
-100%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
-16%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+53%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+150%

Track record

23% hit · 38/165

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?	Yes	$5	8.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	19.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?	No	$1	48.2¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$23	56.5¢	Won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$58	22.2¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	$3	58.0¢	Lost
Will there be no coalition by October 31?	Yes	$43	1.8¢	Lost
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?	No	$21	34.8¢	Lost
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?	Yes	$60	28.0¢	Won

Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?Won
No$1 @ 48.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$23 @ 56.5¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$58 @ 22.2¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Netherlands$3 @ 58.0¢
Will there be no coalition by October 31?Lost
Yes$43 @ 1.8¢
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Lost
No$21 @ 34.8¢
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Won
Yes$60 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$73	91.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$67	65.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$62	25.4¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$42	28.1¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$40	33.1¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	No	$32	40.0¢
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$31	6.5¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$28	69.5¢
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?	Tech	OpenAI	$15	21.4¢
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?	Tech	No	$11	76.0¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	19.8¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	11.8¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$5	31.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	22.8¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.9¢
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	18.2¢
Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	9.0¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Sports	Yes	$3	34.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3	3.9¢
Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	6.5¢
Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	13.0¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.3¢
Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$73 @ 91.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$67 @ 65.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$62 @ 25.4¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$42 @ 28.1¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$40 @ 33.1¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
No$32 @ 40.0¢
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?Politics
Yes$31 @ 6.5¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$28 @ 69.5¢
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?Tech
OpenAI$15 @ 21.4¢
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?Tech
No$11 @ 76.0¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 19.8¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 11.8¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 31.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 22.8¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.9¢
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 18.2¢
Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Sports
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 3.9¢
Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 6.5¢
Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢